USA – US sugar production for 2018-19 is forecast at 8,981,000 short tons, raw value, 2.9% down from record high 9,252,000 tons forecast for 2017-18, according to USDA’s May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
For the next year, cane sugar production was forecast at 3,945,000 tons, down 2.1% while beet sugar production was projected at 5,036,000 tons, down 3.5% from a record 5,221,000 tons expected this year.
The report stated that total imports in 2018-19 were forecast at 3,365,000 tons, down 57,000 tons from 3,422,000 tons this year and tariff-rate quota imports were forecast at 1,355,000 tons, down 433,000 tons from 2017-18, based on the World Trade Organization minimum with an expected W.T.O. shortfall of 99,000 tons
U.S.D.A. lowers sugar production 3% from 2018-19.
Exports were forecast at 50,000 tons, down from 170,000 tons this year while U.S. sugar ending stocks for 2018-19 were forecast at 1,542,000 tons, down 359,000 tons, or 19%, from 1,901,000 tons forecast for 2017-18, which was raised 42,000 tons, or 2.3%, from April.
The U.S.D.A. forecast Mexico’s 2017-18 sugar production at 5,970,000 tonnes based on lower harvested area and that of 2018/19 will be at 4,952,000 tonnes.
2018-19 will see lower domestic sugar prices reflected by relatively higher per capita 2018-19 sweetener consumption, at 48.5 kg with sugar deliveries for human consumption projected at 4,562,000 tonnes.
Domestic use of sugar in 2017-18 was forecast at 4,727,000 tonnes, down 159,035 tonnes from April based on the slow pace in the first half of the year that is to be only partially offset by an expected increase in the pace during the second half.
“Relatively higher per capita 2018-19 sweetener consumption, at 48.5 kg, reflects lower domestic sugar prices than witnessed in 2017-18,” the U.S.D.A. said.
“With high-fructose corn syrup consumption at the same level as in 2017-18, sugar deliveries for human consumption are projected at 4,562,000 tonnes.”
According to USDA, HFCS consumption was forecast at 1,608,000 tonnes, dry basis, for both years, up 6% from 1,522,000 tonnes in 2016-17 and October-March 2017-18 HFCS consumption was estimated at 755,000 tonnes, up 6% from 713,000 tonnes during the same period last year.