Grain production struggles as adverse weather conditions continue impacting the Americas

AMERICAS — Grain production struggles as adverse weather conditions continue impacting the Americas with dry conditions stretching across Brazil and into North America.

Dryness across central Brazil has been noted for quite some time and is likely to have an impact on second-crop corn production as soil moisture has become critical.

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Topsoil moisture was rated very short in many areas at the end of April while subsoil moisture was rated marginally adequate to short. Crop stress was present and increasing in the last 10 days of April.

Southern Brazil has fared much better so far this season, seeing a significant increase in showers in March and April and turning drought conditions into an abundance of soil moisture.

Crop health estimates, as measured by Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) from satellite data, suggest that the second corn crop from Mato Grosso do Sul through Parana is excellent for this time of year.

However, La Nina continues to have a grip on ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

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This weather pattern that begins in the Pacific Ocean, impacts the global climate and disrupts normal weather patterns, which can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others.

Conditions across South America during La Nina events favor increased precipitation across northern Brazil and decreased rainfall amounts in Argentina and southern Brazil

The forecast continues to suggest that La Nina conditions will continue into Southern Hemisphere, potentially weakening going into 2023.

That means La Nina’s influence will continue through the rest of the second crop season and affect the beginning of next season as well.

The moisture stress that was becoming more widespread in the state at the end of April will be closely monitored for about three weeks.

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In the meantime, the market focus is quickly shifting back to North America where there is much talk about weather adversity.

North America is the next big production area in the world that is vulnerable to adverse weather in 2022.

Any problems there, especially in the United States, could create food shortages and send market prices even higher.

Southwestern Canada’s wheat and canola region is still much too dry while excessive April precipitation from North Dakota to Manitoba, Canada, has kept most farmers from their fields.

The situation is unlikely to improve enough for fieldwork until possibly the middle of May.

Farther to the south in the US Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin, spring planting of rice and corn has been delayed by too much rain and cooler-than-usual temperatures.

In the meantime, US hard red winter wheat areas are suffering from all kinds of adverse weather and production is expected to be cut.

South America’s weather and crop production is just starting to look up, as problems in North America, particularly the United States, may be just beginning. This could possibly stretch out the world’s food inflation issues another year.

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