Algerian grain production projected higher owing to favorable policy

ALGERIA— The Algerian Minister of Agriculture forecasts Algerian grain production to reach 3 to 3.2 million metric tons (MMT) in MY2022/23. This is an increase from last marketing year and supports the Algerian policy to increase domestic production.

The Minister stated in a press release that the total area planted with cereals during this season is estimated at 2,900,000 HA, of which 54 percent is durum wheat, 29 percent barley, 14 percent bread (common) wheat and 3 percent oats.

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Given the Minister of Agriculture’s projections, Post revises wheat production to 2.400 MMT in MY2021/22 and estimates wheat production at 3 MMT for MY2022/23.

Algeria is among the largest consumers of wheat in the world, a commodity eaten mainly in the form of bread and couscous made from semolina.

Wheat consumption is expected to remain relatively stable in the future. Post forecasts wheat consumption at 11.15 MMT for MY2022/23.

However, the government is encouraging consumers to decrease consumption of bread to avoid waste and decrease the demand on bread (common) wheat thus reducing imports.

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Algeria has always relied primarily on imported wheat from France, Germany, Spain, Canada, the United States, Argentina, Uruguay and Mexico.

Algeria’s imports from Ukraine and Russia represent only 4% and the ongoing war does not have an impact on Algeria’s imports.

 The Minister of Agriculture, Mohamed Abdelhafid Henni, reiterated that Algeria has sufficient wheat reserves for the next ten months, and that it has imported 3 MMT so far and imports are ongoing.

Trade reports show that Algeria has remained the biggest recipient of EU wheat and Post estimates wheat imports at 7.9 MMT and barley imports at 0.85 MMT for MY2022/23.

Post estimates barley production at 1.2 MMT for MY2022/23. Post maintains USDA forecast for barley production in MY2021/22.

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Barley consumption is a function of weather-related pasture conditions—in general, bad pasture conditions result in increased demand for barley. Post forecasts barley consumption at 2.1MMT for MY2022/23.

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