AUSTRALIA – Australia is expected to produce another big grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22.
While overall grain area is anticipated to remain large, yields are expected to fall towards more typical levels from last year’s exceptionally high numbers.
Wheat production to decline significantly to 29 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/23 as skyrocketing costs farm inputs forced farmers to reduce the crop’s total acreage.
Area for wheat is forecast to decline by four percent to 12.5 million hectares (MHa) from the previous season of 13 MHa.
Australian wheat consumption in MY 2022/23 is forecast 8.5 MMT, in line with the MY 2021/22 estimate.
Wheat exports for MY 2022/23 is projected at 22 MMT, a 5.5-MMT decline from the record MY 2021/22 estimate while wheat import estimate for MY 2021/22 remains low at 200,000 MT and aligned with the official USDA outcome.
FAS/Canberra forecasts MY 2022/23 ending stocks to decline from 4.9 MMT to 3.6 MMT due to lower forecast production, expected robust global demand, and strong export momentum.
Sorghum, Barley production decline
Sorghum production for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 1.6 MMT, a decline from the MY 2021/22 record estimate of 2.6 MMT.
These large forecast reductions are mainly due to MY 2021/22 being an exceptional production season for most sorghum growing regions, unlikely to be repeated.
Sorghum consumption in MY 2022/23 at 510,000 MT an uptick from the 50,000 MT MY 2021/22 estimate. This is a result of a 50,000 MT-increase in forecast feed consumption.
FAS/Canberra forecasts for Barley production is 11.5 MMT, 2.2 MMT below the record for MY 2021/22 of 13.7 MMT mainly due to a lower average yield while consumption forecast for MY 2022/23 is 5.5 MMT, the same as MY 2021/22.
Australia’s barley exports for MY 2022/23 are estimated at 6 MMT, 3 MMT below the estimate for MY 2021/22 of 9 MMT with ending stocks of barley in MY 2022/23 expected to remain low at 1.2 MMT as a result of the expected sustained global demand.
Water availability boosts rice production
Rice production is forecast at 540,000 MT in MY 2022/23, a 15-percent increase over the MY 2021/22 estimate, according to FAS/Canberra.
The forecast increase is primarily as a result of an anticipated improvement in irrigation water availability.
Domestic rice consumption for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 370,000 MT, up three percent from the estimated 360,000 MT for MY 2021/22 while imports are expected to record a 20% decline due to the large increase in rice production.
FAS/Canberra forecast exports of 300,000 MT in MY 2022/23, a 50,000 MT (20 percent) increase from the MY 2021/22 estimate. This increase directly relates to the 70,000 MT forecast growth in rice production.
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