Bleak global wheat outlook jeopardizes feed wheat availability

GLOBAL—Dr. Ioannis Mavromichalis, an animal nutritionist by profession told feed strategy that the feed industry should be ready to formulate feed with alternative cereals for at least the next 2 years since he believes, feed wheat will not make a comeback before 2025.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly increased the uncertainty of global agricultural supply and trade in the short to medium-term.

The conflict is directly disrupting physical, logistical, and market dynamics in the Black Sea region — a key supplier of wheat and other grains to the world markets,

This comes on the back of severe droughts that severely compromised the expected US and Canadian spring wheat output, and record-breaking rains in China that have damaged and delayed planting on more than 18 million acres of land, about one-third of China’s total winter wheat acreage.

Most, if not all, experts expect it will take at least two additional crop years (that is in 2025) before we see wheat going back to normality – always assuming Ukraine and Russia will resume exports with business as usual in mind.

Dr. Ioannis Mavromichalis said that he remains doubtful about the latter and so, maintains he is even more pessimistic about feed wheat.

He also points to the war in Ukraine awakening people and governments to the forgotten concept of wheat self-sufficiency as another reason he has foregone feed wheat.

In many countries, farmers have already been urged to cultivate more wheat to replenish the already low stocks for human consumption.

Actually, this year’s cereal crop (not just wheat) is expected to be one of the worst ever on a global scale. This is why prices for hard wheat (pasta) are expected to double next year from the all-time high right now.

Thus, he came to the conclusion that feed wheat will take second place until countries ensure enough food-quality wheat is in their silos, and this might take several years to happen.

In preparation for this, he said he had alerted his customers to have a separate set of formulas with alternative cereals, and even start booking such cereals (and byproducts that bear enough energy to replace part of cereals) for the next couple of years.

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