BRAZIL— Despite problematic weather conditions, the soybean crop performed slightly better than expected. Post revised up the forecast for 2022/23 soybean production to 144 million metric tons (MMT), based on a yield of 3.39 MT per ha. The estimate was raised, as Brazil has managed to secure sufficient fertilizer supplies.

The yield is forecast to increase almost 10 percent since the previous year when poor weather led to a drought and caused significant losses. Overall, over the last decade Brazil’s soybean yields have increased significantly, by more than one third, as Brazilian farmers invested heavily in the adoption of cutting-edge technology and inputs, such as Genetically Engineered (GE) seeds and the use of chemicals and fertilizers.

Soybean exports in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY) have been revised upward to a forecast of 92 MMT. The forecast is based on available supplies, a favorable exchange rate, and continued robust global demand.

Post maintained the 2021/22 MY exports at 77 MMT, below the previous record set in the 2020/21 MY when Brazil exported over 88 MMT of soybeans. The rise in price quotes, along with the aforementioned losses in the Brazilian soybean crop, reduced soybean exports by over 10 million tons compared to the previous season.

Overall, over the last decade Brazil’s soybean yields have increased significantly, by more than one third, as Brazilian farmers invested heavily in the adoption of Genetically Engineered (GE) seeds and the use of chemicals and fertilizers.

For the 2022/23 season, Post forecasts soybean imports at 700,000 MT. The forecast considers higher production for the following season, which should alleviate some of the built-up scarcity on the domestic market.

Soybean crushing in Brazil is expected to increase by nearly two percent in 2022/23 and reach a record level of 49.15 million tons. The expansion is forecast based on the available soybean supply and rising demand for both soy oil and soymeal domestically, as well as soy oil and meal export demand which will be supported by the continued relative weakness of the Brazilian real.

Post maintains the forecast for 2022/23 soybean meal production at 37.9 MMT, up from the estimated 37.55 MMT in 2021/22. Domestic soymeal consumption is forecast to increase to 20 MMT in the next season in line with a recent increase in beef and pork annual production of between two and three percent.

Post forecasts soybean meal exports to increase to 18.2 MMT in 2022/23, up from 18 MMT in 2021/22, based on available supply and demand for the Brazilian product, and supported by the favorable exchange rate. For 2022/23, Post forecasts soy oil production at 9.9 MMT, up from 9.77 MMT in the current season.

In the same timeframe, domestic oil consumption is expected to rise to 8.05 MMT, up from 7.92 MMT, driven by industrial oil consumption, which is projected to rise to 4.15 MMT.

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