CANADA – Canadian grain production forecast to increase 30% year-over-year on an increase in area planted to spring wheat, durum, and oats, and on the assumption of improved soil moisture conditions resulting in higher yields.

According to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), production of wheat, corn, barley, and oats is forecast to increase to 58 million metric tons (MT) in MY 2022/23 over MY 2021/22.

Production of wheat is forecast to increase in MY 2022/23 on the projected increase in area planted to spring wheat, and durum, and on the assumption of improved yields.

In MY 2021/22, barley production fell 35 percent over the previous year despite a ten percent increase in area planted. However, barley production is forecast to increase on a return to trend yields.

Corn planted area is forecast to increase marginally in MY 2022/23, while production is forecast to decrease as yields return closer to trendline.

MY 2022/23 oat production is forecast up on increased area planted in Saskatchewan. This recovery is in light of the previous years’ low yields caused by soil moisture deficits.

Strong global demand and tight global and domestic supplies behind low ending stocks

As of December 31, 2021, total stocks of wheat were down 38 percent year-over-year to 15.6 million MT. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for total wheat (including durum) is forecast to fall to 12 percent from 16 percent a year ago.

Statistics Canada reports that as of December 31, stocks of barley decreased by 44 percent year-over-year to 3.1 million MT.

Beginning stocks of wheat, oats, and barley are forecast to fall to multi-year lows due to the significant reduction in yields and production in the MY 2021/22 drought year.

Beginning stocks of corn are projected to fall to their lowest level since 2014. This primarily due to high domestic demand for feed, after severe drought limited feeding options.

Increase in exports of wheat, barley, and oats MY 2022/2023

In MY 2022/23, exports of wheat, barley, and oats are forecast to increase 32% over MY 2021/22 with wheat and barley exports projected to increase on increased domestic supplies.

Exports on oats are forecast to increase on expanded production as demand from the United States and Latin America are projected to remain strong.

Corn exports are forecast to fall on reduced domestic supplies.

Decreased imports of wheat, barley, and oats MY 2022/2023

Imports of corn, barley, wheat, and oats are expected to decline more than 40 percent on reduced demand for imported feed corn and feed barley, based on the assumption that Canada will produce a higher level of domestic feed supplies than in MY 2021/22. However, if drought conditions continue, high import levels may be sustained.

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