Changes in temperature, heavy rainfall negatively impact cocoa yields in West Africa

NETHERLANDS –Wageningen University and Research (WUR)) has revealed that changes in temperature and heavy rainfall negatively impact cocoa yields and, therefore, the overall supply in West and Central Africa.

WUR used a simulation model to predict the effects of climate change on future cocoa cultivation in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon.

The study, which aimed to understand better how to overcome declining yields and future-proof cocoa, found a 50% reduction in cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire.

It also stated that cocoa yield in Ghana is expected to decline moderately. At the same time, Nigeria and Cameroon may experience increased arable land for cocoa.

Dr Niels P.R. Anten, professor of Crop and Weed Ecology at WUR, said, “Supply from these countries may decline, especially in Côte d’Ivoire where cocoa exports constitute a significant fraction of the export and foreign currency income.

“This will likely mean that this country may have to shift partly to other forms of income. My worry is the plight of the growers, who often largely depend on cocoa for cash income.

“Generally, we see a strong decline in wet season rainfall and a slight increase in dry season rainfall, with overall annual precipitation tending to decline. In the drier part of the region (the northern parts of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana), wet seasons will become too dry.”

He added that in Cameroon and, to a lesser extent, Nigeria, wet seasons were too wet, so a bit of drying had no adverse effect.

The increase in dry season rainfall tipped the balance to positive. Rainfall predictions are notoriously uncertain, and caution is needed, though our six models agreed.

Computer modeling

Researchers used a computer model to simulate the impact of climate change and predict the rise in regional cocoa yields by 2060.

The WUR study explained that climate change’s impact on cocoa yields in West/Central Africa was uncertain and that simulation models would help fill the knowledge gap. 

Prof. Anten explained that the simulation model is called a process-based crop growth. It converts weather (light, temperature, CO2 levels, and precipitation levels) and soil conditions via processes like photosynthesis and biomass allocation in the plant to yields. There is no AI involved.

He concluded, “To feed the model with climate data, we used six climate change models that bracketed the range in predictions from more modest to more severe warming and the full scale of rainfall predictions.”

Predicted changes in total area suitable for cocoa production in each country where simulated water-limited potential yield is expected to change, with and without CO2 effects.

He concluded that “Cocoa Is a tree crop with an economic life span of about 30 years, so a cocoa plant planted today will experience future climate change.

“Added to this is that most growers are small-holder, relatively poor farmers. For their future and that of the main growing countries, it is important to know how cocoa’s suitability will change.”

Consumers feel the impact of higher chocolate prices, while some manufacturers are responding by incorporating alternatives, such as cookie pieces, into chocolate bars to reduce cocoa use.

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