China’s pork consumption remains stagnant as market faces surplus

CHINA – China’s pork consumption is not expected to increase in the near future, according to research.

According to Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, as quoted by Reuters, rising demand in the world’s largest pork-consuming nation drove the expansion and modernization of pig farms.

However, a weakening economy has caused a decline in consumption, leading to an oversupply that has significantly lowered prices.

Speaking at a seminar, Zhu stated that current demand in China is stable and unlikely to grow further in the short term.

He advised businesses against increasing their breeding sow capacity this year, recommending that they focus on cost control and improving the efficiency of their operations instead.

In line with this outlook, Beijing reduced its national target for breeding sow retention in 2024 to 39 million from the previous 41 million.

The government has also introduced regulations aimed at controlling pig production levels to prevent further market imbalances.

A recently released rural work policy blueprint, known as the No. 1 document, emphasizes stricter supervision of pig slaughter and tighter regulation of pork production.

Zhu warned that an increase in breeding sows this year could put continued pressure on hog prices throughout 2024.

China’s pork imports are expected to drop further in 2025 from the 1.07 million metric tons recorded last year.

While demand for offal is projected to remain unchanged, overall pork imports have already fallen for four consecutive years, with a 15.7% decline in 2023.

Zhu also forecasts an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered in 2025 compared to 2024, which could push pig prices down by 10% to 20%.

China’s pork market has faced various challenges, including trade disputes with the European Union.

In June 2024, China launched an anti-dumping investigation into pork imports from Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

The investigation, initiated by the Ministry of Commerce, is a response to the European Commission’s decision to impose anti-subsidy duties of up to 38.1% on Chinese electric vehicles.

China’s probe, which began on June 17, is examining pork products such as fresh, chilled, and frozen cuts, as well as pig intestines, bladders, and stomachs.

The China Animal Husbandry Association filed the complaint that led to the investigation, arguing that the country’s pork industry needed protection.

Spain, which is the top pork supplier to China, has expressed its willingness to fully cooperate with the investigation.

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