China’s pork production continues decline

CHINA – China’s pork production fell by 0.8% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2024, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s output between June and September reached 12.59 million tonnes, continuing a downward trend in the world’s largest pork-producing market.

This persistent drop reflects a tough economic environment and subdued consumer demand, which is putting strain on the sector that supplies almost half of the world’s pork.

The demand for pork has remained weak, leading to lower slaughter rates as households reduce their spending amid economic uncertainty. 

Boyar, a consultancy based in Beijing, noted that “supply pressure still persists in the market, with no clear signs of demand improving… supply and demand are at an impasse,” indicating the difficulty in balancing production levels with consumption.

In the first nine months of 2024, China’s pork production decreased by 1.4%, totaling 42.4 million tonnes. 

The number of hogs slaughtered during this period fell by 3.2%, to 520.3 million. 

Additionally, the size of China’s pig herd shrank by 3.5% to 426.94 million head by the end of September, aligning with government efforts to reduce overcapacity and address the pressure on pork prices.

Despite these challenges, some livestock companies reported profits in the third quarter, driven by efforts to reduce stock and cut costs, which helped stabilize hog prices. 

However, the limited demand has prevented prices from climbing further. Cash hog prices recently dropped to a four-month low of US$2.41 per kilogram, down from US$2.95 in August, according to MySteel data. 

Furthermore, the sow herd also saw a decrease, with a 4.8% reduction to 40.36 million as of August, as reported by China’s agriculture ministry.

The combination of weak consumer demand, government efforts to trim herds, and cautious market responses is proof of the significant challenges facing China’s pork industry as it pulls through ongoing economic and structural adjustments.

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