Climate change threatens cocoa belt, driving record shortages and price surges, research finds

AFRICA – The sustainability of cocoa cultivation in West and Central Africa is under increasing threat due to rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns, according to new research by the Independent Research Centre Climate Central.

The research states that by 2024, climate change had extended periods of extreme heat across 70% of cocoa-producing regions in Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Cameroon.

The research found that these regions experienced six-week daily temperatures exceeding 32°C, exceeding the cocoa tree’s optimal threshold of 30°C to 32°C.

This excessive heat leads to water stress, disrupted flower development, and reduced yields.

The effects of rising temperatures on cocoa production vary across different countries in the cocoa belt, with some regions experiencing more severe climate shifts than others.

Extreme heat has increased significantly in Ivory Coast and Ghana, two of the world’s largest cocoa producers.

These countries now experience an additional three weeks per year where temperatures exceed 32°C. This prolonged heat stress risks cocoa trees, affecting their growth, flowering, and overall yield.

Cameroon has also seen a notable impact, with over two weeks of increased extreme temperatures annually.

This rise in heat contributes to greater water stress for cocoa plants, disrupting their natural growth cycles, making them more vulnerable to diseases, and lowering their productivity.

Meanwhile, Nigeria has faced a one-week rise in extreme heat per year. While this increase is relatively lower compared to its neighboring countries, it still threatens cocoa farming, gradually affecting crop health and production stability over time.

These variations highlight the uneven but widespread challenges posed by climate change across the cocoa belt, reinforcing the urgent need for adaptive agricultural practices and sustainability measures to secure the future of cocoa farming.

Beyond temperature increases, irregular rainfall patterns have further disrupted cocoa farming. Excess rain in July 2024 led to 40% higher precipitation than usual in parts of Côte d’Ivoire, flooding fields and damaging cocoa trees.

Conversely, no rainfall was recorded in December, exacerbating stress on crops. Prolonged humidity also promotes diseases like brown pod rot, severely impacting yields.

Record cocoa shortages and price surge

The combination of high temperatures, El Niño-related weather shifts, and crop diseases has caused a significant decline in cocoa production, resulting in the largest cocoa bean supply deficit in 60 years.

This supply shortage has pushed cocoa prices to a record high of US$12,500 per tonne in New York, further straining the global market.

In response to sustainability concerns, the World Cocoa Foundation (WCF) has introduced the first-ever Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Accounting Standard for Cocoa.

Developed in collaboration with environmental consultancy Quantis and key industry players, the methodology offers a standardized approach for measuring and reducing cocoa-related emissions.

This initiative aims to help cocoa companies meet their Scope 3 emissions reporting obligations by addressing key environmental factors impacting the industry.

One critical area of focus is land use change and management. As cocoa farming expands, deforestation and land degradation become major concerns. The methodology provides a standardized approach to measure and mitigate emissions resulting from land-use changes, ensuring sustainable agricultural practices.

Another essential aspect is carbon removal. The initiative encourages companies to track and enhance carbon sequestration efforts, such as agroforestry practices and soil management techniques that help offset greenhouse gas emissions.

The cocoa industry can contribute to global climate change mitigation goals by prioritising carbon removals.

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