WEST AFRICA – Cocoa industry, led by Ivory Coast and Ghana, is facing a volatile period as weather patterns and crop diseases continue to disrupt production.
After months of dry conditions, cocoa industry observers are hopeful that the transition from the El Niño weather pattern to La Niña will increase precipitation, boosting soil moisture levels and improving cocoa yields in the region.
Despite the optimism, cocoa production in the Ivory Coas, the world’s largest producer, remains significantly down.
Government data revealed that farmers shipped 1.68 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa from October 1 to August 18, a 28% decrease compared to the previous year.
The effects of swollen shoot disease, which has devastated crops in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, continue to hamper recovery efforts, even as favorable weather conditions loom on the horizon.
Concerns are further exacerbated by the spread of black pod disease, which threatens to diminish yields as the region heads into the next marketing season.
In Ghana, projections for the mid-crop, starting in July, have been slashed to 25,000 metric tons (MT), down from an earlier estimate of 150,000 MT.
The Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) has also warned that the 2023/24 cocoa harvest could reach only 422,500 MT to 425,000 MT—half of the initial forecast and the lowest in 22 years.
While these challenges persist, there is some optimism as above-average rainfall has boosted the development of the main crop in several key regions of Ivory Coast.
Farmers in regions like Daloa, Yamoussoukro, and Bongouanou report that the main crop is developing well and could result in significant volumes of high-quality beans by September.
However, cooler temperatures in some areas raise concerns that the crop may not reach its full potential, potentially impacting the drying process of the first beans.
As the rainy season continues, farmers remain cautiously optimistic, hoping that a balance of rainfall and sunshine in the coming months will sustain the main crop and improve overall production.
However, the combination of lingering diseases, unpredictable weather, and global market pressures means the future of West Africa’s cocoa industry remains uncertain.
For the two months, the prices of cocoa prices have steadily been on a climb due to concern that dry weather in West Africa.
Tighter US cocoa supplies are also supportive of prices. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports fell to a 7-1/2 year low Monday of 2,685,926 bags.
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