IVORY COAST- International cocoa prices have increased sharply to two-week highs after data released by the Ivorian government reveals cocoa arrivals in ports have reduced by 29% in the 2023/2024 season compared to the previous season. 

According to government data, bean arrivals at Abidjan and San Pedro ports in Ivory Coast reached 1.47 million tons by May 26 since the start of the 2023/2024 season, a 29% decline from the previous season. 

The data released last week induced a surge in international cocoa prices- cocoa futures in New York were up 5.14% (426 points) and 3.83% (261 points) in London following the announcement on the same date.  

The sharp increase in cocoa prices reflects the sector’s volatility, which is marred by a lack of liquidity and supply chain challenges primarily fueled by disease and extreme weather. 

However, prices reduced slightly in the first two weeks of May following the onset of the rainy season, which helped offset some bean supply challenges.  

Cocoa prices started increasing in the third week of May after the Highway Report predicted that a lack of fertilizer and other farm inputs could hinder cocoa production in the 2024/2025 season. 

The port arrivals data caused shocks in the cocoa market, reigniting the supply chain concerns that initially caused the price surge, especially after the cocoa market experienced a bean deficit. 

According to the Trader Ecom Agroindustrial project, Ivory Coast’s cocoa production in the 2023/2024 season is projected to decline by 21.5% compared to the previous season, an 8-year low, despite a slight production increase due to rains. 

Ivorian regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao temporarily stopped forward cocoa sales for the 2024/2025 season earlier in the year until it determined the expected cocoa bean production in the largest cocoa-producing country in the world. 

This halt also contributes to the growing uncertainty in the cocoa market.  

Dwindling cocoa bean inventories in ports in the US, London, and other areas are also fueling supply chain uncertainty. 

Inventories in the US are at an all-time low of 3.7 million bags, while deliveries for the May cocoa contracts in London were 53,100 tons compared to 67,350 tons in the same period last year. 

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