Colombia’s coffee production stagnates as India, Mexico look forward to higher outputs: USDA

COLOMBIA – Columbia coffee production is forecasted to remain unchanged at 13 million bags of green bean equivalent (GBE) in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

This is a 5.8 percent downward revision from the previous Post forecast of 13.8 million bags at the start of the same market year.

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Additionally, exports are forecasted to remain unchanged at 13.0 million bags GBE in MY 2022/23, paralleling stagnant production.

Meanwhile, coffee imports are forecast to slightly increase in the MY to 1.9 million bags GBE to support domestic consumption and continued strong levels of exports.

The post-revised coffee exports are estimated down 6.7 percent from 14.0 to 13.1 million bags GBE, due to an expected reduction in production and increasing domestic consumption.

This revised coffee exports estimate is slightly higher than the previous year, motivated by high international prices and Colombian peso devaluation.

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Coffee production in India to increase by 3.8% in 2022/2023

Elsewhere in India, coffee production for MY2022/23 is forecast to increase by 3.8 percent to 5.74 million 60-kilogram bags, according to recent USDA reports.

More specifically, Arabica production is estimated at 79,200 metric tons (MT) while Robusta production is estimated at 265,200 MT.

USDA attributed the growth in production to adequate moisture due to very good pre-monsoon rains after a long winter dry spell and prospects of early onset of normal southwest monsoon that will benefit plant development.

Post estimates of Indian coffee for MY 2021/22 exports are at 5.98 million 60-kilogram bags (341,100 MT) due to increased demand in major export markets.

Imports of raw coffee green beans in the first five months (Oct 2021-Feb 2022) of MY 2021/22 have risen by 13 percent from the same period a year ago with 97% share of imports being green beans meant for processing and re-exports.

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Mexico’s coffee production to reach 3.84 million bags in 2022/2023

Meanwhile, in Mexico, USDA officials project that coffee production for the marketing year (MY) 2022/23 will reach 3.84 million 60 kg/bags.

The officials are betting on optimal weather conditions to improve yields and sustained strong global prices to incentivize optimal harvest.

Post forecasts that in MY 2022/23 exports will reach 3.23 million 60/kg bags, with the US continuing to be Mexico’s top market for green, roasted, and soluble coffee.

The import forecast for MY 2022/23 is 2.05 million 60kg/bags, up slightly from the previous MY forecast. Mexico imports green coffee mainly from Brazil and roasted and ground coffee from the United States.

Although weather conditions are expected to be normal for the countries, USDA officials are of the opinion that crop productivity including coffee will be negatively impacted by lower fertilizer used on the farms due to rising prices in the farm inputs, primarily fertilizers in the recent months.

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