GLOBAL— Global output of grain is expected to fall 2% in the 2022-23 marketing year (MY), led by a reduction in corn and rice production, the International Grains Council said, still expecting it to be the second largest harvest in recorded history.
In the August report, The International Grains Council has revised its global grains output forecast for 2022-23 by 4 million tons from July estimates to 2.248 billion tons, rice production taking a 41-million-ton nosedive.
In the forecast period, world corn production estimate was reduced from 1.188 to 1.178 billion tons, compared to the 1.219 billion tons produced in 2021/22 MY.
In the EU, where 70.3 million tons of corn were harvested in 2021/22 MY, the corn harvest forecast for the 2022-23 MY was reduced from 68.3 to 59 .6 million tons, for the USA the forecast was reduced to 364.7 from 368.4 million tons, while for Ukraine it was increased from 25.1 to 27.7 million tons, a huge drop from the 42.1 million tons produced in 2021/22 MY.
The forecast for the world export of corn was increased from 169.3 to 173.3 million tons, in particular for Ukraine – from 12 to 15.5 million tons, while for the USA the export estimate was reduced from 61 to 60.3 million tons.
Global closing stocks of corn, wheat, barley and sorghum in 2022/23 MY are expected to decrease by 4% from the previous season to an 8-year low of 577 million tons.
With corn imports to the EU expected to increase significantly, the forecast of world trade in grain was increased by 3 million tons to 409 million tons compared to 424 million tons in 2021/22.
Global closing stocks of corn, wheat, barley and sorghum in 2022/23 MY are expected to decrease by 4% from the previous season to an 8-year low of 577 million tons.
Global wheat harvest is forecast down by 3 million tons to 778 million tons, and the world soybean production is expected to grow by 11% to a record 389 million tons, primarily thanks to the recovery of South American production.
The consumption volume of soybeans is expected to grow by 8% to a record 379 million tons against the background of increased consumption of processed products for the feed and food industry.
While rice consumption is expected to reach a record high in MY 2022/23, owing to poor harvests in key producers, including India, production is expected to decline from the previous season to 514 million tonnes and carryover stocks to decline by 3 million tonnes.
The IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI)— a measure of grain and oilseed prices, rose by 0.5% from the previous month, reflecting a staggering 9% year-on-year increase.
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