EU— Dry and warm conditions across the EU, combined with a decline in corn plantings, are anticipated to reduce the bloc’s total grain production in MY 2022/23 to 256.7 MMT, down from the 264.3 MMT estimated for MY 2021/22.
Post anticipates a five percent reduction of feed grain demand as animal inventories are expected to decline across the EU in MY 2022/23 driven by eroding livestock producers’ margins, animal health issues affecting animal populations in the EU, and logistic difficulties when exporting livestock products.
MY 2022/23 EU corn production is revised down to 64 MMT, reflecting the reduced planted area and the drought and early summer heat impact on the crop. Under the prospects of a poorer crop, MY 2022/23 imports are revised up.
Total corn consumption is predicted to contract by over 2 percent in MY 2022/23, driven mainly by a lower feed demand. Despite the shorter domestic crop, in MY 2022/23, corn is anticipated to remain the preferred grain for feed purposes. MY 2021/22 corn imports are expected to increase by 1 MMT as compared to the previous season.
The EU wheat area for MY 2022/23 has slightly increased compared to previous estimates due to higher than previously anticipated plantings in Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Slovakia, and Spain, more than offsetting the lower areas reported in France, Denmark, and Hungary.
A lack of rainfall and excessive heat across Europe throughout the growing season since the beginning of 2022, will take a toll on the final EU wheat production, which is now estimated at 130 MMT
However, unfavorable weather throughout the growing season, namely a lack of rainfall and excessive heat across Europe since the beginning of 2022, will take a toll on the final EU wheat production, which is now estimated at 130 MMT.
Imports are foreseen to increase in MY 2022/23 fueled by Italian demand. EU wheat imports were revised up in MY 2021/22 due to higher than anticipated imports of UK wheat in Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, and Russian and Serbian wheat in Greece and Italy.
MY 2021/22 EU wheat exports were reduced from previous forecasts as the impact of high wheat prices in demand was not previously anticipated.
MY 2022/23 wheat feed uses in the EU are projected to drop, driven largely by the declines anticipated in Spain and France.
As previously anticipated, EU barley area for MY 2022/23 is estimated at 10.5 million HA. Conversely, EU’s barley production has been revised down significantly to 49.5 MMT, on excessively hot temperatures and dry weather.
Feed barley consumption in MY 2022/23 is significantly revised down to 31.5 MMT, given the reduced supply and availability, and expectation of a sharp fall in the animal sector’s demand.
Barley imports are revised up to 1.2 MMT for MY 2022/23, expecting imports from the United Kingdom to rise. At the same time, EU barley exports are still estimated at 6.8 MMT as the exportable supply is limited, and price competitiveness, especially against corn, is eroded on the Chinese and the Middle East markets.
In MY 2022/23, EU rice planted area is projected to decline to 357 thousand Ha due to low irrigation water availability in Spain and, to a lesser extent, in Greece and Portugal. As a result, EU rice production is forecast to decrease to 1.3 million MT in MY 2022/23, mainly due to lower yields in Italy and reduced planted area in Spain.
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