European grain production forecast projected downwards due to reduced planting area

EUROPE- While increased grain exports are forecast for MY2021/22, EU’s total grain production for MY2022/23 is projected downwards following reduction in planting area and more conservative yield expectations.

USDA in its report also attributed the decline to top soil moisture issues and hostilities in Ukraine limiting input delivery. Despite this, consumption of major grains is anticipated to increase.

Total barley consumption is anticipated to edge up to 45.6 MMT (Million Metric Tons) in MY2022/23, driven by the growing EU population and the relaxation of most of the COVID-19 related restrictions.

With the easing up of COVID related restrictions EU rice imports are forecast to continue expanding in MY2022/23 to 2.1 MMT and EU barley imports are projected to rise to 890,000 MT in MY2022/23.

Additionally, consumption of wheat foreseen to remain stable in MY2022/23 as food uses are already increasing in MY2021/22 as resultant restrictions affecting tourism and the HRI sector are being lifted.

Production and plant areas affected by dry season

Total grain consumption in MY2022/23 is projected at 259.4 MMT, down from the 260.6 MT estimated for MY2021/22.

ADVERT

For MY2021/22 EU wheat crop was significantly higher than MY2020/21 due to higher planted area and favorable weather, though it is expected to slightly decline by 0.5 percent in MY2022/23 due to dry weather.

In MY2022/23, the EU corn area is forecast to drop by 0.2 million Ha and production is forecast to decline to 67.5 MMT in MY2022/23.

In MY2021/22, EU rye planted area decreased by 7.2 percent and is expected to experience a further 1.9 million Ha decline in MY2022/23.

In MY2022/23, EU rice planted area is projected to decline to 393 thousand Ha due to low irrigation water availability.

In MY2021/22, EU oats Production declined to 7.6 million MT and in MY2022/23, the total EU oats planted area is forecast to shrink by 3.8 percent.

Barley remained unaffected; its planting area being forecast to grow moderately to 10.5 million Ha in MY2022/23.

Corn, other grains account for bulk of downwards correction of total grain feed.

Corn consumption is expected to fall by 1.5 percent in MY2022/23, primarily due to a lower feed demand and as a result imports are forecast to rise by 4 percent to 13.5 MMT in MY2022/23.

Consumption of rye is projected to decrease 2.1 percent, due to lower availability and so EU rye stocks in MY2021/22 and forecast for MY2022/23 are expected to be lower than in previous seasons.

In MY2022/23, total EU oats consumption is forecast to diminish 1 percent to 7.6 million MT. Due to lower forecast production, a decline in ending stocks is expected for MY2022/23.

Opportunities arise in formerly Ukraine and Russia-dependent export markets

Since port operations in Ukraine halted in February 2022, the EU’s total grain exports have been revised up to 48.3 MMT. Wheat exports are foreseen to expand in MY2021/22 and barley exports are estimated at 7.6 MMT in MY2021/22, an increase from the previous marketing year.

Liked this article? Subscribe to Food Business Africa News, our regular email newsletters with the latest news insights from Africa and the World’s food and agro industry. SUBSCRIBE HERE

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.