GLOBAL— If the weather cooperates, the 2022-2023 season could see Brazil realize its largest grain harvest in history, as the third consecutive bumper grain crop is expected in Australia and the third largest wheat crop in expected to be realized Canadian history.
The National Supply Company (Conab), Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency, projects farmers will produce more than 300 million tons of soybeans, corn, cotton, rice, wheat and beans. If the weather cooperates, the Brazilian harvest could result in its largest grain harvest in history.
The expected growth of the Brazilian crop is attributed to a 2.5% increase in planted area and 11% higher yields than in 2022, which were reduced by a severe drought that affected Brazil’s southern states.
The 2022-2023 soybean crop is projected to be 150 million tons, an increase of 21.2% over the previous harvest as a result of the conversion of pasture to accommodate soybean planting.
Brazilian total corn acreage is expected to grow 2.5%, to 55 million acres, primarily driven by High domestic and global corn prices, and the average yield is expected to increase by 6% over the previous season
Corn yields could have been even higher this year had it not been for the drop in production in the southern states earlier in the year, a result of a lack of rain caused by La Nina.
The surge in production expected for Brazilian, Canadian and Australian grain crop for the 2022/2023 season comes at a critical time when hot, dry weather has reduced output in other key producing regions and the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly restrained exports from the Black Sea region
Brazilian corn exports in 2022/2023 are forecast at 44.5 million tons, a 19% increase from this season’s estimated shipments of 37.5 million.
There is an expectation that exports may grow even more due to the agreement signed with China in May. The two countries have agreed on an updated protocol outlining the phytosanitary – plant health and safety – requirements for the export of Brazilian corn to China.
Third consecutive bumper grain crop is expected in Australia
Meanwhile third consecutive bumper grain crop is expected in Australia in the 2022-23 marketing year, according to the latest projections from IKON Commodities. The Sydney, Australia-based commodity services company forecast a total grains crop of more than 55 million tonnes, including a wheat crop of 35.7 million tonnes, 40% above the historical average.
IKON’s other crop forecasts for the upcoming crop year include barley at 12.54 million tonnes, down from 13.3 million in 2021-22 but 27% above the historical average, and canola at 6.71 million tonnes, up from 6.3 million tonnes and 79% above the historical average.
Canada expects third largest wheat crop in history
according to the latest projections from Statistics Canada, Canadian wheat production in the 2022-23 marketing year is forecast to increase 55% over the previous year to 34.6 million tonnes, representing the third largest wheat crop in Canadian history.
The increase in expected total wheat production is largely attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to rise by 57% to 25.6 million tonnes. This increase is a result of higher anticipated yields (up 40% to 52.7 bushels per acre) and higher harvested area, expected to increase by 12.5% to 17.8 million acres.
Durum wheat yields also are expected to rise (up 101% to 40.6 bushels per acre), contributing to higher expected durum wheat production (up 113% to 6.5 million tonnes).
The surge in production expected for Brazilian, Canadian and Australian grain crop for the 2022/2023 season comes at a critical time when hot, dry weather has reduced output in other key producing regions and the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly restrained exports from the Black Sea region.
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