Favourable weather drives up grain production in Bangladesh, Argentina and Australia

GLOBAL – Bangladesh, Argentina, and Australia are set to record bumper grain harvests in the marketing year (MY) 2021/22 thanks to a mixture of factors including favorable weather conditions, moderate precipitation during the planting and growing stages, and a higher total grain production area. 

In Bangladesh, rice production in MY 2021/22 is forecast to increase to 36.2 million metric tons (MMT) of milled rice production, according to recently released GAIN reports.  

In the report, USDA analysts noted that favorable weather and moderate precipitation during the planting and growing stages of Aus rice were responsible for these higher yields. 

The country’s corn production estimates for MY 2021/22 (May-April) have however been lowered marginally to 5.11 MMT due to reduced cultivated area as other competitive crops like Aus rice and jute production have increased. 

The depressed production has led to USDA officials revising upwards Bangladeshi’s corn import forecast for MY 2020/21 to 2.4 MMT as more corn would be needed to meet consumption which is forecast at 6.2MMT based on steady demand in the feed industry.

Argentina set for a record wheat harvest 

In Argentina, a higher planting area has resulted in Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 being revised upwards to a record 20.8 million tons, 300,000 tons higher than USDA Official. 

In addition to the additional acreage under Wheat, USDA officials in the country note that soil moisture is adequate in most provinces, except in north-central Cordoba where additional precipitation would be required to guarantee a bumper harvest.  

With a bumper harvest expected, USDA officials note that wheat exports are also forecast to be the highest in history at 14.0 million tons (including wheat flour). 

A marginally larger acreage for Corn has also led to USDA officials revising corn production estimate to 51.5 million tons, slightly higher than USDA Official estimates. 

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Barley production in MY 2021/22 is, on the other hand,  forecast at 4.8 million tons, in line with USDA Official, however, exports are forecast at 3.2 million tons, 300,000 tons lower than USDA Official, on higher projected domestic consumption. 

Australia set for a second consecutive bumper harvest 

Meanwhile, USDA estimates show that Australia is set for a second consecutive big year of production after two years of drought. 

The country’s wheat production for MY 2021/22 is for instance forecast at 29.5 million metric tons (MMT), 22 percent higher than the previous 10-year average and 1 MMT higher than the official USDA forecast. 

If realized this would be merely 3.8 MMT lower than the record-breaking MY 2020/21 wheat crop and would be the fourth highest on record for Australia. 

Barley production is however forecast to decline slightly due to farming area reducing from m 4.4 million hectares to 4.2 million hectares. 

According to USDA officials, the decline in barley production has been associated with China imposing an 80.5-percent duty on imports from May 18, 2020, for a period of five years.  

Farmers, particularly in the export-oriented states of Western Australia and South Australia are now reported to shift away from barley and towards canola motivated by the high demand and price for the oilseed. 

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