Global beef production shrinks as demand remains high – RaboResearch

NETHERLANDS –  Worldwide beef production is on a downward trend following a peak in 2024, according to RaboResearch’s latest global beef quarterly report. 

The first quarter of 2025 has seen a 2% drop in output compared to the same period last year, with the second quarter projected to decline by 3%. Brazil and New Zealand are expected to experience the most significant reductions.

Even as herd sizes shrink, global demand for beef continues to rise. 

This has prompted major South American producers to shift focus toward exports rather than domestic sales. 

Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, the region’s top four beef suppliers, are all expected to scale back production in 2025.

Brazil, which contributes 63% of South America’s total beef supply, is set to cut production by 500,000 metric tonnes this year, according to RaboResearch senior analyst Angus Gidley-Baird. 

The decline follows a period of heavy female cattle slaughter, which was driven by high prices in 2022 and 2023. 

In response, Brazil is now expected to retain more female cattle, reducing beef output in the short term.

China and North America Drive Demand

China continues to be a dominant market for South American beef, with the region supplying 76% of the country’s total beef imports in 2024. 

Brazil accounted for 47% of these imports, followed by Argentina at 21% and Uruguay at 8%. 

Demand remains strong, but China launched an investigation into beef imports in late 2024, citing concerns over profitability for domestic producers. 

The probe, expected to last eight months, has introduced uncertainty into global beef trade.

North America is also experiencing high demand, but cattle inventory remains low, leading to rising prices. 

In contrast, Southern Hemisphere producers are operating at nearly half the price levels seen in North America. 

Brazil’s cattle prices surged at the end of 2024 but are expected to decline in the second quarter of 2025 as supply increases. 

Meanwhile, trade policies introduced by the new US administration, including tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, have added further uncertainty to global beef markets.

Australia recorded its highest-ever beef production in 2024, reaching 2.57 million tonnes, slightly surpassing its previous record from 2014. 

Despite increased production, cattle prices in Australia have remained stable.

In China, local beef production grew by 3.5% in 2024, driven by financial pressures that led to the liquidation of cattle and dairy cows. 

However, the rate of cow slaughter is expected to slow in the first half of 2025.

China’s beef imports hit a record high of 2.87 million tonnes this year, marking a 5% increase from 2024. 

Brazil is anticipated to expand its market share further in 2025 due to competitive pricing.

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