Global beef supply to face first decline since pandemic,  RaboResearch reports

WORLD – The global beef supply is projected to decrease for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2025, according to the latest global beef report by RaboResearch.

This is driven by shrinking herds in the four largest beef-producing nations.

This reduction in output is anticipated to affect international trade dynamics in the coming year.

Rabobank’s analysis suggests a supply drop of approximately 500,000 metric tonnes, representing a 1% decline compared to the previous year. 

Brazil and the United States are forecast to experience the most significant decreases, with additional reductions expected in China, Europe, and New Zealand. 

Among the world’s top beef producers, only Australia is expected to achieve year-over-year growth in production.

Cattle prices in North America have remained elevated for nearly two years due to reduced herd sizes and steady consumer demand. 

In contrast, other regions, such as South America and Oceania, have experienced lower cattle prices during this period. 

However, this trend is starting to reverse as tighter global beef supplies provide price support in markets like South America, Australia, and New Zealand.

With production declining in several key regions, shifts in global beef trade are expected. 

Angus Gidley-Baird, a senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch, noted that Australian producers would likely increase their focus on export markets to accommodate rising domestic production. 

Meanwhile, Brazil, facing tepid domestic demand, is expected to prioritize international markets as a source of growth.

Although contraction in production appears imminent, changes in weather conditions could influence the extent of these declines. 

In the United States, producers are monitoring precipitation levels closely, hoping for improved weather to rebuild herds following prolonged drought. 

Seasonal cooling has provided some optimism for better rainfall. 

Brazil’s production has faced delays due to rain, while Australia has benefited from stable precipitation in recent years.

However, concerns about potential dryness remain.

Weather patterns in 2025 are expected to maintain current conditions. 

Rabobank’s El Niño Southern Oscillation models predict that La Niña conditions will persist through early 2025 before shifting to a neutral climate by midyear.

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