Global cocoa prices surge 123% in 2024 amid supply deficit 

GLOBAL – Global cocoa prices soared by 123 percent in 2024, making cocoa the top-performing commodity for the second consecutive year, according to AFEX, a leading commodities market player. 

The sharp price increase was primarily driven by a persistent supply deficit, particularly in West Africa, which accounts for over 75 percent of global cocoa production.  

The region experienced its third consecutive season of unfavorable weather conditions, further exacerbated by widespread pest and disease outbreaks. These factors significantly reduced global cocoa bean output for the 2023/24 season, according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). 

Despite the supply shortage, global demand for cocoa-based products remained strong, outpacing available supply and intensifying upward pressure on prices. The sustained demand nearly tripled prices, reaching a record average of US$10,320 per metric ton in December. 

In Nigeria, cocoa prices surged from an average of NGN2,490,000 (US$1,658.19 )per metric ton in 2023 to NGN10,850,000 (US$7,225.43) per metric ton in 2024.  

Prices started the year at approximately NGN5,500,000 (US$3,662.66 )per metric ton and closed at NGN12,640,000 (US$8,417.46) per metric ton, reflecting a year-end gain of about 160% compared to the previous year.  

The sharp increase was primarily attributed to the continued depreciation of the naira against the U.S. dollar, which ended the year at approximately NGN1,555/$, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). 

On the AFEX Exchange, cocoa contract volumes totaled 2,000 metric tons in 2024, while price volatility stood at 23%. 

Looking ahead, the AFEX Annual Commodities Review and 2025 Outlook Report suggests a more optimistic global cocoa market outlook for 2025.  

Supply conditions are expected to improve, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire, potentially increasing global production by 15 percent.  

This projected supply boost is anticipated to ease cocoa prices in 2025 and 2026 following the sharp surge in 2024. 

“If the forecasted surplus materializes, the stock-to-grind ratio could rise by up to 30%, signaling improved market balance,” the report stated. 

However, adverse weather conditions remain a significant downside risk to these projections.  

Despite expectations of higher output, cocoa prices are likely to stay elevated due to uncertainties surrounding production in West Africa and persistently tight global stocks. 

Additionally, the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation introduces stricter oversight of cocoa supply chains, which could disrupt trade flows and increase production costs. These factors are expected to maintain market volatility despite the projected supply recovery. 

In Nigeria, AFEX Research forecasts a 34 percent year-on-year increase in cocoa prices, indicating continued price strength in 2025. 

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