Global grain output projected to increase

UK — The International Grains Council raised its 2022-23 world total grains production estimate in its latest monthly Grain Market Report, with increases in global wheat and barley output more than compensating for a reduction in corn output.

The IGC projects total grains production at 2.256 billion tonnes, up from 2.248 billion in August but still 2% lower than the 2021-22 total of 2.291 billion tonnes.

Citing larger crops in Russia, Australia, and Canada, the IGC now sees worldwide wheat output for this year at record large 792 million tonnes, up a hefty 14 million from its August estimate and 10 million above the previous year.

The Council sees year-on-year declines in corn (down 51 million tonnes) and sorghum (down 2 million tonnes) but projects increases in wheat (up 10 million) and barley (up 3 million).

The IGC said year-over-year grain consumption is forecast to decline for the first time since 2015-16, down 1% from the previous year amid reduced demand for corn for feed, while growth in food and industrial use is projected to be slower than average.

While solid acreage gains are anticipated, the outlook hinges on a rebound in yields in South America, particularly in Brazil and Paraguay, following the prior season’s poor results

The International Grains Council Tweet

“Even so, because of a sharper drop in supply, cumulative ending stocks are set to tighten, pegged 3% lower year-on-year, at 587 million tonnes,” the IGC said.

The outlook for soybean production in 2022-23 is bullish, with the IGC forecasting a 10% increase year-on-year, at a record 387 million tonnes. 

“While solid acreage gains are anticipated, the outlook hinges on a rebound in yields in South America, particularly in Brazil and Paraguay, following the prior season’s poor results,” the IGC said.

Following a record year of production in 2021-22, global rice output is forecast to contract by 2%, to 508 million tonnes, on potentially smaller outturns in Asia, including in India, the Council said.

Linked to gains in wheat, corn and rice, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index, which measures grains and oilseeds prices, rose by 2% in the five weeks since the August report and is up 11% from 2021-22. 

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