WORLD – The global poultry meat market is poised for significant growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Rabobank’s latest analysis.
While the outlook remains optimistic, the report cautions against excessive optimism, which could lead to overexpansion and potential market disruptions in the future.
After two years of sluggish growth in poultry consumption—0.6% in 2022 and 1.1% in 2023—the sector is projected to expand by 2.5% to 3.0% in 2024.
This would mark a return to the pre-pandemic growth rates.
The forecast is largely driven by two key factors: a drop in feed prices and the relatively higher cost of other meats, making chicken an attractive option for both retailers and consumers.
The affordability of chicken, combined with recovering demand in the fast-food sector, is expected to fuel the increase in sales.
Additionally, the lower environmental footprint of poultry compared to other animal proteins is boosting its popularity in markets where sustainability is a growing concern.
Despite the promising outlook, Rabobank highlights several risks that could impact the market.
Among the major concerns for the poultry sector are the upcoming highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) season in the Northern Hemisphere, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and persistent volatility in feed prices.
In the third quarter of 2024, chicken meat prices remained robust, and global trade saw a 5% increase in raw meat volumes compared to the same period in 2023.
This occurred even as China reduced its poultry imports by 30%. Brazil, a major player in the global chicken trade, absorbed much of the surplus demand from other regions.
Brazil is expected to set a new record for chicken production in 2024, despite restricting exports from Rio Grande do Sul due to a mid-July outbreak of Newcastle disease.
Rabobank forecasts a production increase of 1.5% to 2.5% for Brazil by the end of the year, supported by lower feed prices.
In Europe, the poultry market is also experiencing bullish conditions, with chicken breast prices peaking while feed costs continue to fall.
However, uncertainty looms as the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is set to take effect on December 30, 2024.
This regulation will introduce new requirements to ensure that products consumed within the EU do not contribute to global deforestation or forest degradation.
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