Global wine market faces decline, but millennials offer a promising future – IWSR 

WORLD – The global wine industry is facing continued consumption declines, with an aging consumer base and shifting drinking habits posing challenges for the sector, according to IWSR.  

However, despite ongoing economic difficulties, opportunities remain for brands that can attract younger, more engaged consumers. 

According to the Global Wine Trends Executive Summary 2024 by IWSR, wine volumes in key markets are expected to continue their downward trend in the coming years.  

The number of wine consumers has fallen by 5 million between 2021 and 2024, despite an overall increase in the adult population.  

In many mature markets, older consumers make up the majority of wine drinkers, with over-55s accounting for nearly 50% of the wine-drinking population in countries such as the UK, France, Portugal, and Belgium. 

“Experienced drinkers are loyal but spend less, while younger drinkers are more engaged with the category and willing to pay a premium,” said Richard Halstead, Chief Operating Officer for Consumer Insights and Custom Analytics at IWSR. 

Key factors driving wine moderation 

Several factors contribute to the ongoing decline in wine consumption, including active moderation, economic concerns, and lifestyle changes. IWSR data highlights that: 

• 40% of consumers across 17 key markets are drinking less wine due to a general reduction in alcohol consumption. 

• 28% are cutting back on wine spending due to financial constraints. 

• 23% are consuming less wine because of rising prices. 

Moderation trends are particularly evident in China, where still wine volumes declined by nearly 100 million cases between 2018 and 2023. While the steepest declines have passed, the downward trajectory is expected to continue. 

Shift toward premium wines and alternative categories 

The decline in wine consumption has been most pronounced in the lower price segments. Between 2021 and 2023, global sales volumes of value-priced wines dropped by 27%, while IWSR forecasts predict growth only in premium-and-above price tiers between 2025 and 2027. 

Meanwhile, alternative wine categories such as organic, sustainable, and natural wines are gaining traction due to consumer interest in health-conscious and environmentally friendly products.  

However, IWSR consumer research suggests that while these wines appeal to younger drinkers, they are often perceived as more expensive. 

The no-/low-alcohol wine category is also experiencing strong growth, driven by increasing demand for moderation-friendly options.  

According to IWSR data: 

• No-/low-alcohol sparkling wine makes up 70% of global no-/low wine volumes. 

• Low-alcohol still wine grew at a CAGR of +22% between 2018 and 2023. 

• This category is expected to expand at a CAGR of +15% between 2023 and 2028. 

Millennials: A key growth opportunity 

While younger generations are not entering the wine category at the same rate as before, Millennials (those in their late 20s to early 40s) present a valuable opportunity for the industry. This consumer group is more engaged with wine, open to experimentation, and willing to spend more on quality products. 

“Millennials who drink wine regularly report buying more expensive bottles than the market average,” noted Halstead. “Attracting and retaining these consumers will be key to driving value in the category.” 

Millennials are also more likely to explore a wider range of grape varieties and beverage categories. While this presents a challenge for brands seeking long-term loyalty, it also offers opportunities for innovation in packaging, storytelling, and brand engagement. 

Innovation as the Path Forward 

Despite structural challenges in the global wine industry, IWSR notes that there is still potential for growth. Brands that focus on premiumization, sustainability, and engaging millennial consumers are well-positioned to navigate the evolving market landscape. 

“Structural threats to the wine industry persist,” said Halstead. “However, there remains plenty of room for innovation and new opportunities in this challenging landscape.” 

As consumer habits continue to shift, the future of wine will likely depend on how well the industry adapts to these changes while appealing to the next generation of drinkers. 

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