LONDON–The International Grains Council has trimmed its global corn production forecast to 1.184 billion tonnes, a dip of 1.1 percent from last month, reflecting a downward revision to the crop in the United States, the world’s top corn producer.
In the May report, the inter-governmental body lowered its forecast for the corn crop in the United States – where excessive rains have slowed planting – by 9.3 million tonnes to 367.3 million. Smaller 2022-23 harvests are also forecast in Argentina, South Africa, and Ukraine.
In Ukraine – the world’s fourth-largest exporter of the grain – the forecast for corn crop production was put at 18.6 million tonnes, less than half its 42.1 million tonne forecast for this season.
A sharp decline in the area sown for spring crops like corn in Ukraine had been widely expected this season following Russia’s invasion.
The IGC has also cut its 2022/23 wheat production forecast by 11 million tonnes to 769 million, slipping 1.4 percent from the previous month. While production increases are forecast for Australia, Canada and Russia, declines elsewhere brought down the overall tonnage.
In the United States the forecast is expected to tumble to 46.8 million from 49.9 million and the Indian harvest was estimated at 105 million versus the 111.3 million estimated in the April report.
For Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, the IGC lifted its 2022/23 wheat crop forecast to 84.7 million tonnes from 82.5 million.
The IGC kept its forecast for next season’s wheat crop in Ukraine – the world’s 6th largest exporter of the grain – at 19.4 million tonnes, about 40% lower than the 33 million tonne forecast for this season.
The soybean production forecast however, had a relatively positive outlook. It was bumped up 1.3 percent at 387.5 million tonnes, with ending stocks expanding 8.1 percent at 58.4 million tonnes.
The IGC predicted increases out of China and the U.S. as countering decreases in Ukraine and Paraguay.
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