IGC optimistic of a bumper grain harvest despite poor growth conditions in some regions

GLOBAL – The International Grains Council (IGC) is forecasting total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in the 2021-22 marketing year to reach an all-time high at 2.286 billion tonnes, up 71 million tonnes from last year.  

The prediction was made despite of difficult growing condition in some major grain producing regions such as South America.  

The IGC also projected global grains consumption to set a record this year at 2.287 billion tonnes, causing a slight decrease in ending stocks year-on-year to 601 million tonnes.  

It marks the fifth consecutive month the grain council has forecast global ending stocks to contract. 

The total grains production forecast is however 1 million tonnes  lowe from the November projection as reductions in corn (mostly in South America), oats, barley and rye output offset gains in wheat, led by Australia and Argentina

The Council’s initial forecasts for 2022-23 wheat supply and demand include a tentative projection for a fourth consecutive increase in global production, to a new peak.  

It also sees consumption reaching a record high, leaving the global ending stocks picture unchanged.  

Assuming improved production in several countries, world wheat trade is forecast to retreat from this year’s record, the IGC said. 

Soybean projections were slashed by 12 million tonnes from the November projection to 368 million tonnes to reflect the impact of hot, dry weather on crop prospects in South America. 

Global soybean stocks are predicted to fall by 6% year-on-year to 52 million tonnes, including a reduction in exporters’ reserves, while trade is forecast to expand by 4% compared to 2020-21 to 167 million tonnes, underpinned by Asian demand. 

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index advanced by 3% from mid-November as firmer soybeans corn prices more than compensated for declines in wheat and barley. 

Strong gains in US Consumer Price Index during 2021 

Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index for baked foods and cereal products again finished stronger in 2021, increasing 2.3% after an advance of 2.2% in 2020, 1.4% in 2019 and 0.4% in 2018.  

The gains followed declines of 0.5% in 2017 and 0.3% in 2016. Overall, all 18 of the categories finished higher for the year. 

The price index for Bakery Products advanced 2.5% in 2021. The category posted increases of 2.4% in 2020, 1.8% in 2019, 0.8% in 2018 and 0.1% in 2016. The index was unchanged in 2017.  

The CPI for Cereals and Cereal Products increased 1.7% in 2020, its third straight year of year-over-year gains after three consecutive year-over-year declines.  

Flour and prepared mixes advanced 2.3%, which comes on the heels of a 1.2% increase in 2020.  

Breakfast cereal increased 2.5% in 2021, which followed an increase of 1.3% in 2020 and 0.5% in 2019 but declines of 1.8% in 2018, 1.1% in 2017 and 1.1% in 2016.  

Rice, pasta and corn meal increased 0.6%, which followed increases of 2.5% in 2020 and 0.8% in both 2019 and 2018. 

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