INDIA – India’s Coffee production for marketing year (M/Y) ) 2021/22 is forecast to increase by 5 percent to 5.41 million 60-kilogram bags as above normal pre-monsoon rains coupled with expectations of a normal monsoon are expected to improve yields, especially for Robusta in major growing regions.
This is according to recently released projection by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) – India of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
More specifically, Arabica production is estimated at 1.36 million 60- kilogram bags (81,600 MT) with Robusta production estimated at 4.05 million 60- kilogram bags (243,000 MT).
Higher yields for both Arabica (one percent) and Robusta (eight percent) crops are expected due to adequate moisture as a result of above normal rainfall.
According to the Coffee Board of India, the post-Monsoon estimate of Arabica production is 102,000 metric tons, however due to heavy rains in December 2020 and January 2021, crop loss has been reported.
Trade sources however indicate that the country’s Arabica crop was adversely damaged by white stem borer, a serious pest that burrows through the stems of Arabica coffee plants.
The FAS noted that the pest’s damage is costly as it not only kills the plant, but it also results in plant removal and replanting costs, increasing producer losses.
As production rises, USDA also projects that India’s exports for the MY2021/22 are expected to reach 5.68 million (60-kilogram) bags due to robust demand in Europe and the United States.
This export increase will lead to tighter stocks as domestic coffee consumption is also estimated to rise to 1.2 million (60- kilogram bags), driven by at-home consumption as the hospitality sector remains closed due to COVID19 lockdown measures.
Coffee production in Indonesia and Honduras plummets
Meanwhile in Indonesia, the FAS projects coffee production to decline by 70,000 (60 kilogram) bags to 10.63 million bags in MY2021/2022 due to lower Robusta yields in highland areas and lower Arabica yields during the first harvest period.
Consumption for 2021/22 is forecast at 4.7 million bags, a modest increase from 4.45 million bags during 2020/21, but still below pre-pandemic levels.
The FAS further notes that Indonesia’s economic downturn has resulted in lower consumer purchasing power and continued to shift demand away from higher quality and higher priced coffee, particularly at major chain outlets.
However, consumption of ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee products declined by less than one percent in 2020, demonstrating demand resiliency.
In Honduras, USDA projects coffee harvest for MY2021/22 to reach 5.5 million bags (60 kg each), a twelve percent decrease from the previous year.
A higher incidence of leaf rust and other diseases is expected to reduce coffee production directly by reducing yields and
indirectly by rendering more plants unable to produce.
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