IVORY COAST- Informed sources from industry regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao (CCC) revealed to Bloomberg News the country is likely to harvest 2 million tons of cocoa beans in the 2024/2025 season from October 1.
This prediction is 200,000 tons higher than the 1.8-million-ton estimates by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) and significantly lower than the 2.2-million-ton average harvested in the past five years.
A mix of disease, aging trees, and bad weather have significantly reduced cocoa harvests in the West African country, inhibiting supply chains. These factors caused prices to peak at an all-time high of US$12,241 in mid-April.
Prices have remained volatile since then, with prices either increasing or decreasing sharply almost weekly depending on events in the cocoa market. Prices slightly dropped in the week ended June 21 after cocoa grindings increased in Europe, Asia and the US. They sharply increased in the week ended June 28 after reports of inventory reductions surfaced.
According to Bloomberg, the sources used early pod counting to arrive at the predicted harvest recovery.
The world’s largest cocoa producer has already sold 800,000 tons of the 2024/2025 cocoa harvest via futures as the regulator banks on improved weather conditions. However, forward sales have been halted in the Ivory Coast as part of the regulator’s efforts to reform the cocoa market.
The regulator has since announced a combination of both spot and forward sales moving forward, which is expected to benefit farmers in the medium and long term.
The market reform efforts are implemented at a time when the country faces significant internal and external challenges. The CCC recently revealed that it is cracking down on illegal cocoa bean smuggling to neighboring countries. The regulator estimates 200,000 tons have already been smuggled in the 2023/2024 season.
In early June, the regulator suspended the sale of cocoa futures for the rest of the 2023/2024 season as it seeks to ensure a continued supply of cocoa beans to local grinders in a move meant to protect the local cocoa industry.
However, market analysts remain skeptical over the easing of the current pricing and supply chain challenges.
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