GLOBAL – The global beverage alcohol is experiencing subdued growth as consumers limit their alcohol intake to free more cash for expenditure on groceries and other daily necessities whose prices have remained elevated for the better part of the year.
Inline with this trend, the IWSR drink market foresees global beverage alcohol market to record subdued volume growth rates of just 1% between 2022 and 2027.
The drinks market analysis firm further forecasts growth in beverage value to stand at just +2% YoY during the same period as consumption patterns evolve.
In value terms, IWSR projects the beverage alcohol market to deliver over US$21.6bn to the global economy by the end of 2023.
Although alcohol spending is falling in many markets, IWSR points out that consumer confidence about finances and the future is trending more positively than in 2022.
Regionally, IWSR expects a shift away from the US and China as the key volume drivers for the global beverage alcohol industry but will remain significant value drivers despite expected volume declines 2022-2027.
Instead, India, Mexico, and Brazil stand out as the key volume growth markets over the next five years. It is to be remembered that India and Mexico together accounted for over half of all volume growth in 2022.
As consumer behaviors shift, IWSR notes that a twin-tracked premiumization trend is evident. However, the growth is at a more moderate rate than previously.
Premiumization for certain categories is strongest in markets where more positive general sentiment prevails, such as Champagne spend in China, and spending for tequila/mezcal in the US and Mexico.
Premium segments in the global travel retail channel are projected to continue to regain market share as the channel increasingly embraces the role of a high-end product showcase.
Staying in and enjoying the at-home drinking occasion has a powerful pull in most markets, with consumers opting for cheaper beverage options.
Although alcohol e-commerce sales are set to moderate over the next five years, the channel will still be a key contributor to the global market and will reach nearly US$40bn by 2026 across key markets.
There is still a strong intention to go out amongst consumers, just with less frequency and more mindfulness in alcohol consumption and spending.
For brand type, Beer is expected to continue to grow at just under +1% volume CAGR, 2022-2027, while the global standard-and-below wine segment will see volumes decline by -1% volume CAGR, in the same period.
Premiumization in whisky will be a key growth driver for the overall spirits category, and IWSR forecasts that the premium+ whisky to grow by +4% volume CAGR, 2022-2027.
For Tequila, the market research firm says it will remain a high-profile affordable luxury thanks to the number of celebrities directly involved with brand offerings, although there are early signs of a slow-down in the premiumization trend.