KAZAKHSTAN— USDA forecasts wheat production in MY2021/22 at 11.9 million metric tons (MMT), 0.1. MMT lower than USDA’s official estimate of 11.8 MMT, as precipitation has been generally more than last year, especially through June, although July precipitation in some areas has come in slightly lower.
Noting robust demand for wheat flour, Kazakhstan has extended wheat and wheat flour export restrictions until September 30, 2022. In addition to the 1.0 MMT of wheat and 300,000 MT of wheat flour of quotas originally announced in April, exporters can export an additional 550,000 MT of wheat and 370,000 MT of wheat flour until September 30.
After nearly five months of a Russian wheat export ban to the Eurasian Economic Union, Russian wheat was reportedly again flowing into Kazakhstan beginning in early July, forcing domestic wheat prices lower.
Lower exports to Central Asian markets have been offset by higher exports outside the region. Kazakhstan exported 6.4 MMT of wheat and wheat flour in MY2021/22 (September-May), a 7 percent increase from the same period last MY.
FAS-Nur-Sultan expects no significant changes to planting area for barley for MY 2022/23 at. FAS-NurSultan estimates that from the projected 2.18 million hectares planted area, barley production in MY 2021/22 at 2.367 MMT, a decrease of 36 percent from MY 2020/21 and on par with USDA’s official estimates.
In MY 2021/2022, barley exports are estimated to be 0.5 MMT, on par with USDA official estimates. Kazakhstan exported 381,989 tons of barley in MY 2021/22 (July-May), a decrease of 62 percent from last year due to the higher prices on the market.
In Kazakhstan, barley is mainly used in livestock and poultry feed. Barley consumption for feed isestimated at 2.0 MMT in MY 2021/22, as livestock herd increases were limited this MY.
On March 15, Russia announced export restrictions for wheat, rye, barley, and corn to the Eurasian Economic Union (which includes Kazakhstan) until June 30. After Russian grain exports to Kazakhstan restarted on July 1, domestic prices have fallen precipitously from about US$377 to US$251 per MT.
In addition, Kazakhstani grain production associations have asked the government to ban Russian trucks from entering Kazakhstan with grain due to reports of underreported low-priced Russian grain entering Kazakhstan, placing further pressure on domestic prices.
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