Kenyan fuerte avocado exports to Turkey surge as Red Sea crisis reshapes global demand

KENYA – The Kenyan avocado season is unfolding against the backdrop of instability in the Red Sea, significantly influencing global demand.

Exporters are seeing contrasting market conditions for Fuerte and Hass avocados, with Turkey emerging as a key destination for the former.

Noor Yassin, director of Avochichi, says, “We’re still at an early stage of the season. The Fuerte avocado campaign started on February 7th, and the Hass avocado campaign on March 17th. However, the two campaigns are in completely different positions.”

The security situation in the Red Sea was relatively calm at the start of the Fuerte campaign, ensuring reasonable transit times. However, as tensions escalated, demand for Fuerte avocados surged, while Hass avocado shipments slowed.

Exporters have found Turkey to be a reliable market, with smooth shipping and regular departures. “Of all our markets, shipping has been the smoothest to Turkey with a transit time of 30 days and two departures per month, in addition to Gulf countries. We have also seen the entry of new Turkish players in avocado imports from Kenya. Fuerte deliveries to Turkey have increased remarkably for most Kenyan exporters, to the point that the Fuerte campaign is expected to end earlier than usual, around June,” Yassin adds.

While the Fuerte variety enjoys high demand, the situation for Hass avocados remains uncertain. Many exporters are cautious about the European market, following last season’s heavy losses due to extended delivery times.

“For Hass avocados, on the other hand, I think the season will be difficult. Exporters are very cautious with the European market after last season’s heavy losses due to extended delivery times. We’re relying a lot on the Gulf countries,” he says.

Yassin further concluded that market conditions have also influenced prices. For Fuerte avocados, prices are similar to those of last season. For Hass avocados, exporters are pushing for lower prices on account of the risks they are taking.

Tanzanian avocado oversupply disrupts Indian market

Meanwhile, in India, the avocado market is struggling with an oversupply of Tanzanian produce, leading to a drastic price drop.

Abdul Kadir Memon, Head of Business Development and Procurement at Abacate International, states that in the first two weeks of March 2025 alone, nearly 1,156 tons of avocados entered the Indian market—three to four times more than the same period last year. This sharp increase has caused a price crash, worrying major importers and distributors.

According to Memon, avocado imports in India have been on an upward trend since 2021. He reports that in January and February of this year, total imports reached 1,854 tons, a 72% increase from the 1,078 tons imported during the same period in 2024.

 “Our company alone handled nearly 20% of the total imports in January and February. In the past four years, we have seen imports increasing annually. However, the pace at which avocados have entered the market this month is concerning.”

Ethiopian avocado exports remain low

In Ethiopia, avocado exports continue to face obstacles, despite favorable production conditions. Netsanet Tadesse, Deputy Managing Director of FloraVeg, points out that Ethiopia’s climate is well-suited for avocado cultivation, with two harvest seasons per year and stable rainfall.

The country has also increased its use of irrigation, ensuring steady production levels.

However, infrastructure limitations and the ongoing Red Sea crisis have hindered exports. “Exports were already minimal and mainly destined for Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar,” Tadesse explains.

The country’s avocado industry is still in its early stages, with challenges such as the lack of cold storage, grading and sorting facilities, and transport issues. Furthermore, strong local demand keeps a significant portion of production within the domestic market.

According to FAOSTAT, Ethiopia produced over 160,000 tons of avocados in 2023 but exported only 5,000 tons. Despite high production, the export market remains small, largely due to logistical and supply chain issues.

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