May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecasts a reduction in global agricultural supply and consumption

GLOBAL—The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a reduction in global agricultural supply and consumption.

The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for lower supplies and consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks

Global production is forecast at 774.8 million tons, 4.5 million lower than in 2021/22.

wheat Production in Ukraine is forecast at 21.5 million tons in 2022/23, 11.5 million lower than 2021/22 due to the ongoing war.

However, Canada’s production is forecast to rebound to 33.0 million tons in 2022/23, up significantly from last year’s drought-affected crop.

Projected 2022/23 world use is slightly lower at 787.5 million tons, as increases for food use are more than offset by declining feed and residual use. However, global trade is a record 204.9 million tons, up 5.0 million from last year.

Imports are projected to rise on increased exportable supplies from Russia and Canada more than offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Australia.

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Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are reduced 5 percent to 267.0 million tons and would be the lowest level in six years.

Russia is projected as the leading 2022/23 wheat exporter at 39.0 million tons, followed by the European Union, Australia, Canada, and the United States.

Ukraine’s 2022/23 export forecast is 10.0 million tons, down sharply from last year on reduced production and significant logistical constraints for exports.

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Although India is expected to remain a significant wheat exporter in 2022/23, stocks are forecast to decline to 16.4 million tons, a five-year low.

Global coarse grain outlook remains bleak

The global coarse grain outlook for 2022/23 is for lower production and use, and smaller ending stocks.

World corn production is forecast to decline from last year’s record high, mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine as well as the United States, the EU, and China

India, a major player in rice supply and demand

In general, the global rice outlook for 2022/23 is for record production, consumption, and trade but with reduced ending stocks.

With greater output expected from India as well as China and Bangladesh, the three largest global rice producers, rice Production is projected at a record 514.6 million tons, up slightly from the 2021/22 record

Additionally, India and China are expected to be responsible for a large increase in global rice consumption, pushing projections up to 518.4 million tons, up nearly 8.0 million from 2021/22

Global rice trade is projected at 54.2 million tons, up 1.5 million from 2021/22 as higher exports are expected from several of the major Asia exporters, India projected in the lead.

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