MEXICO— FAS Mexico forecasts wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 32.6 million metric tons (MMT), 10,000 MT lower than the USDA official forecast based on updated industry and Mexican government data that reflect adverse weather conditions.
The MY 2021/22 production estimate was adjusted upward by 1000 MT to 3282 MT.
The MY 2022/23 harvested area revised slightly lower by 15000 HA to 590, 000 HA based on final official figures released by the Ministry of Agriculture (SADER). The MY 2021/22 harvested area estimated was also revised slightly downwards.
Post estimates MY2021/22 ending stocks at 444,000 MT, a slight upward revision compared to the USDA official estimate, due to higher than previously projected domestic production. This is reflected in an upward adjustment of MY2022/23 carry-over stocks.
Post’s total corn production estimate for MY 2022/23 remains unchanged from USDA official estimate of 27.6 MMT. However, the total corn production estimate for MY 2021/22 (October to September) has been revised upward from the USDA official estimate to 27.8 MMT based on more complete SADER data indicating a higher yield.
The Post corn ending stocks estimate for MY 2021/22 is 3.6 MMT, slightly higher than the USDA official estimate because of higher than previously estimated domestic production. As a result, the MY 2022/23 beginning stocks is forecast equally higher than the USDA official forecast.
Post’s consumption and import estimates remain unchanged in relation to USDA official data based on available information from local industry sources.
Consumption estimate for MY 2022/23 is 44.7 MMT, a slight increase compared to MY 2021/22 estimate of 44.4 MMT. Import estimate for MY 2022/23 17.7 MT, a slight increase from MY 2021/22 estimate of 17.5 MMT.
The sorghum production estimate for MY 2021/22 is revised downward from the USDA estimate to 4.6 MMT, driven by lower-than-expected harvested area and inadequate precipitation.
The ending stocks estimate for MY 2021/22 was revised downward from the USDA official estimate to 151,000 MT based on lower than previously estimated domestic production.
The FAS-Mexico rice production estimate for MY 2022/23 (October/September) is 291,000 MT (rough production), an increase compared to the USDA official estimate reflecting the most recent SADER data as of April 30, 2022
Based on revised production levels, the MY 2022/23 ending stocks estimate has been increased to 237,000 MT, up from the USDA official estimate.
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