Mexico wheat forecast revised down owing to adverse weather conditions

MEXICO— FAS Mexico forecasts wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 32.6 million metric tons (MMT), 10,000 MT lower than the USDA official forecast based on updated industry and Mexican government data that reflect adverse weather conditions.

The MY 2021/22 production estimate was adjusted upward by 1000 MT to 3282 MT.

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The MY 2022/23 harvested area revised slightly lower by 15000 HA to 590, 000 HA based on final official figures released by the Ministry of Agriculture (SADER). The MY 2021/22 harvested area estimated was also revised slightly downwards.

Post estimates MY2021/22 ending stocks at 444,000 MT, a slight upward revision compared to the USDA official estimate, due to higher than previously projected domestic production. This is reflected in an upward adjustment of MY2022/23 carry-over stocks.

Post’s total corn production estimate for MY 2022/23 remains unchanged from USDA official estimate of 27.6 MMT. However, the total corn production estimate for MY 2021/22 (October to September) has been revised upward from the USDA official estimate to 27.8 MMT based on more complete SADER data indicating a higher yield.

The Post corn ending stocks estimate for MY 2021/22 is 3.6 MMT, slightly higher than the USDA official estimate because of higher than previously estimated domestic production. As a result, the MY 2022/23 beginning stocks is forecast equally higher than the USDA official forecast.

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Post’s consumption and import estimates remain unchanged in relation to USDA official data based on available information from local industry sources.

Consumption estimate for MY 2022/23 is 44.7 MMT, a slight increase compared to MY 2021/22 estimate of 44.4 MMT. Import estimate for MY 2022/23 17.7 MT, a slight increase from MY 2021/22 estimate of 17.5 MMT.

The sorghum production estimate for MY 2021/22 is revised downward from the USDA estimate to 4.6 MMT, driven by lower-than-expected harvested area and inadequate precipitation.

The ending stocks estimate for MY 2021/22 was revised downward from the USDA official estimate to 151,000 MT based on lower than previously estimated domestic production.

The FAS-Mexico rice production estimate for MY 2022/23 (October/September) is 291,000 MT (rough production), an increase compared to the USDA official estimate reflecting the most recent SADER data as of April 30, 2022

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Based on revised production levels, the MY 2022/23 ending stocks estimate has been increased to 237,000 MT, up from the USDA official estimate.

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