MEXICO – Mexico is on track to see a significant rise in meat consumption and production over the next decade, according to projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The agency’s latest “Agricultural Projections to 2033” report forecasts that Mexico’s combined consumption of poultry, pork, and beef will climb to 82.5 kilograms per person by 2033.
This figure is anticipated to be roughly two-thirds of the projected U.S. meat consumption, which is expected to reach 124 kilograms per capita.
Leading this growth is poultry, with consumption predicted to increase from 38.3 kilograms per capita in 2023 to 43.8 kilograms by 2033.
Pork consumption is also expected to rise, from 20.2 kilograms to 22.6 kilograms per person within the same period.
Meanwhile, beef consumption is set to see a modest increase, moving from 15.7 kilograms to 16 kilograms per capita over the next decade.
To accommodate the escalating demand, Mexico is expected to both ramp up domestic meat production and boost imports.
The USDA report suggests that imports of chicken and pork into Mexico will grow by 31% and 17%, respectively, over the next ten years.
In contrast, beef imports are predicted to decline by 5%. As Mexico’s livestock production expands, imports of key feed ingredients like corn, soybeans, and soybean meal are also expected to rise.
The USDA projects that between 2023 and 2033, Mexico’s production of chicken, pork, and beef will increase by 22%, 24%, and 25%, respectively.
The report also reflects on the broader context of trade relations in North America.
The USDA highlighted the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), implemented in 1994, which played a crucial role in integrating markets between the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
This agreement transformed Mexico’s approach to imports, shifting from a system reliant on licensing and tariffs to one characterized by free trade with its northern neighbors.
NAFTA’s successor, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which came into effect in 2020, continues to uphold these market access provisions, particularly in agricultural trade.
The USDA’s 2033 projections assume that the USMCA will remain in force throughout the forecast period, maintaining the established trade dynamics between the United States and Mexico.
The USDA report also points out the significant growth in Mexico’s agricultural imports and meat production over the past three decades.
From 1993 to 2023, Mexico’s corn imports surged more than fourfold, while soybean imports nearly doubled, and soybean meal imports grew by nearly half.
Much of these imports have been channeled into livestock feed, supporting the country’s expanding meat production.
During the same period, Mexico’s output of chicken, pork, and beef increased by 183%, 80%, and 26%, respectively, underscoring the country’s growing role in global meat production.
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