NAMIBIA – Namibia is expected to see only a slight increase in poultry prices this year, according to the latest Absa AgriTrends report.
The report attributes the projected 1% rise in chicken product prices to a stronger South African rand and growth in poultry production by major suppliers, such as Brazil.
Dr. Marlene Louw, Senior Economist at Absa AgriBusiness, noted that previous disease outbreaks like Avian Influenza had led to a global shortage of poultry, pushing prices up.
Recently, Namibia lifted a ban on poultry and bird imports from South Africa. The suspension had been imposed in September 2023 following an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
Namibia’s reliance on South African poultry imports had been disrupted by the ban, with the country consuming around 2,500 metric tons of chicken per month.
In response, local producers, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), increased production efforts to meet domestic demand.
Namibia Poultry Industries (NPI), the country’s largest poultry producer, has encouraged local farmers to view the situation as a chance to strengthen Namibia’s ability to meet its own poultry needs.
Chicken remains the dominant meat in Namibia, accounting for about two-thirds of the country’s total meat consumption.
However, 20% of this demand is met through imports, with the majority being frozen bone-in chicken portions.
Supply chain disruptions, such as a July 2023 outbreak of New Castle disease in Brazil, resulted in a 21-day suspension of trade.
This incident, according to Louw, underscored Brazil’s critical role in the global poultry market. Brazil exports approximately 400,000 tons of chicken each month, making it a key supplier.
While there are ongoing discussions about making certain chicken products zero-rated to address food affordability concerns, Louw cautioned that such changes could have unintended effects.
Price shifts within the broader meat market could alter consumer behavior and impact the prices and profit margins of other meat products.
Namibia has also established itself as a significant poultry exporter.
In 2022, the country exported US$43.4 million worth of poultry, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Botswana being the primary destinations.
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