NEW ZEALAND – New Zealand’s beef exports are forecast to climb to 700,000 metric tons (MT) on a carcass weight equivalent (CWE) basis in 2025, according to a recent Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
This projection, revised up by 10,000 MT from previous estimates, represents what could be the highest annual volume of beef and veal exports from New Zealand if achieved.
The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) attributes the forecasted increase to sustained demand for imported beef in the United States and rising economic activity and consumer confidence in other significant markets, including China.
In addition, beef exports to the United Kingdom and European Union are expected to rise, as duty-free access for New Zealand beef expands under the NZ-UK Free Trade Agreement.
The USDA’s August 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report also suggests a nearly 1% increase in U.S. beef imports in 2025, compared to 2024.
New Zealand remains a major supplier to the U.S. market, currently ranking as the fourth-largest exporter of beef and veal products to the United States.
New Zealand’s beef production continues to play a key role in its agricultural sector, though cattle numbers have slightly decreased.
As of June 2023, the national beef cattle population stood at 3.7 million head, down 4% from 2022.
However, this number has generally trended upward since reaching a historical low in 2016.
The New Zealand beef industry recorded US$3.6 billion in export value in the year ending June 2021.
Major destinations for these exports remain the United States and China, which together accounted for around 72% of New Zealand’s total beef exports in 2020.
Over two-thirds of the country’s beef cattle are raised on farms in the North Island.
Industry participants are looking ahead optimistically to 2025, with many expecting continued strong demand from international markets.
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