NIGERIA – Nigeria’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP), which was estimated at N84.91 trillion in 2014 is expected to grow to N95.09 trillion in 2015 and N156.29 trillion in 2019, provided this month’s election outcome is favourable.
However, following weak recovery in the global economy, need for improvement in infrastructure, contractionary monetary and fiscal policy stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the federal government and the security challenges in some parts of the north, real GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 5.68 per cent, representing a decline from estimated of 5.99 per cent for 2014.
An analysis of economic and financial outlook for 2015 and 2019 made available to THISDAY by analysts at FSDH Securities Limited, showed that the nominal GDP is expected to reach N109.34 trillion by 2016, N126.86 trillion by 2017 and N142.08 by 2018 with a growth rate of 15 per cent, 16 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.
While presenting the opportunities available in the economy in the years ahead, they noted that the manufacturing sector is increasingly becoming attractive, even as the power sector reform gathers momentum.
The sector, the analysts stated, has the capacity to generate sustainable income stream given the favourable population and demographic pattern of the Nigerian economy.
“In addition, it also has the capacity to generate employment opportunities for the country. The agriculture sector reform continues to offer rewarding investments opportunities, as output continues to expand in the production of sugar, cassava, rice, etc. There are intervention funds set up the CBN to encourage long term investments in the agriculture sector, and at affordable rates.”
“We expect the recent local content development in the Information, Communication and Telecommunication (ICT) industry to drive activities in the industry in the next few years. The real estate sector is set for another boost with the growing awareness for Real Estate Investment Trust Scheme (REIT) in the country, they added.
Looking into 2019, FSDH predicted that the nation’s external reserve would continue to grow at a measured pace.
They said the developments in the global oil industry, particularly improved oil production techniques and fuel switching technology will aid the growth.
“Other factors that will support the external reserve growth include: The general and consensual agreements by all OPEC members to achieve reasonable oil price for all members; particularly supply related agreement aimed at boosting oil prices, improvement in the power supply and the continued implementation of the agriculture sector reform”, the report added.
It stressed that others would be, “the planning and enforcement of economic diversification programmes by the government, political stability, which could spur capital inflows in the form of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI).”