Philippines rice production to stay flat in 2022-23

PHILIPPINES— FAS Manila holds the USDA official MY 2022/23 forecast of milled rice production of 12.4 million metric tons (MT), flat with the previous year’s near-record high.

Despite facing rising input costs, rice producers have so far proven themselves resilient to changing market conditions as evidenced by the Rice Tariffication Law.

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FAS Manila forecasts rice consumption for MY 2022/23 at 15.3 million MT, unchanged from USDA official estimates but up 350,000 MT from MY 2021/22.

This can be attributed to the stability in rice retail prices making it an increasingly affordable option when compared to increasing inflationary pressures placed on other foodstuffs, including wheat-based products.

FAS Manila forecasts 3 million MT of rice imports for MY 2022/23, down 200,000 from MY 2021/22

FAS Manila forecasts feed demand for wheat in MY 2022/23 at 1.8 million metric tons down 600,000 MT tons from MY 2022/23 USDA Official estimate, which was 100,000 MT lower than MY 2021/22.

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Consumption of wheat for swine feed will continued to impeded by the widespread presence of African Swine Fever. The poultry industry is also considerably more sensitive to fast rising Philippine feed costs given the relatively shorter production cycle.

The situation for milling wheat remains unchanged from earlier expectations with the government currently reviewing another hike to bread prices.  FAS Manila forecasts food demand for wheat in MY 2022/23 at 3.85 million MT, which is unchanged from earlier USDA expectations but down 50,000 MT from MY 10 2021/22

As the government currently reviews another hike to bread prices, the high price of milling wheat is likely to shift some consumption from bread to rice.

FAS/Manila cuts MY 2022/23 wheat imports to 5.7 million MT, a 600,000 drop from USDA’S official estimate.

However, through nine months MY 2021/22 Post holds the official USDA estimate of 6.3 million MT with the understanding that trade slowed considerably as supplies became constrained and prices began to spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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FAS/Manila lowers MY 2022/23 corn production to 7.9 million MT, from USDA’s Official estimate of 8.3 million MT.  Estimated Increasing production costs (e.g., fuel, fertilizer) have led producers to reduce area, in line with reports of reduced seed sales. Reports of reduced fertilizer application further warrant reduced yield expectations.

Through nine months of MY 2021/22, corn production is down one percent for a total of 8.2 million MT.

Corn consumption for feed is forecast to increase as consumers shift from highly priced wheat and as such, FAS/Manila forecasts corn feed consumption at 7.65 million MT in MY 2022/23.

Trade Satisfying current feed demand and accounting for a lower production outlook, FAS/Manila raises MY 2022/23 corn imports to 1.9 million, facilitated by reduced in-quota corn tariffs from 35 to 5 percent and over-quota tariffs from 50 to 15 percent that came into effect June 2022.

FAS Manila holds its forecast and current year estimate for sorghum at 30000 MT while adjusting 2020/21 imports to reflect reported exporter data. FAS Manila foresees MY 2022/23 barley imports at 525,000 MT.

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