BRAZIL – Poultry production in Brazil is anticipated to increase to 14.8 million tonnes in 2023, setting a historical record, on account of strong external demand as well as improved domestic consumption, as highlighted by a report from the USDA

According to data from the USDA, Brazil is the second largest chicken meat producer in the world. In 2022, the country produced a total of 14.4 million tonnes of chicken down from 14.5 million tonnes recorded in 2021.

The USDA report forecasts that in 2023, the production will increase by 2% to reach 14.8 million tonnes propelled by factors such as strong external demand, improved domestic consumption, reduced input costs and an increase in chicken inventories availability.

The report also anticipates that poultry prices will remain on a steady upward trajectory throughout 2023. This is predicted to be on account of domestic inflation, high input and energy costs and external volatility.

The costs of production are highly dependent on the availability of feed. Therefore, as the prices of corn, a common animal feed, are anticipated to lower due to a predicted increase in corn production, the report forecasts a positive impact on poultry producers.

Another factor projected to cause domestic chicken prices to rise is the remaining effects of the conflict in Ukraine which has disrupted the global supply chain of commodities and fertilisers and is anticipated to persist.

Consumption projected to surge due to increased minimum wage

Brazil consumed about 10.28 million tonnes of poultry in 2022 according to data from Statista. The USDA report, therefore, predicts the consumption rate to increase by 2%  in 2023.

Despite the projected surge in inflation by 5.79%, the consumption of poultry in Brazil is anticipated to increase as a result of the newly announced increase in the minimum wage which will in turn increase purchasing power among local consumers in the country.

The report forecasts that almost 70% of Brazilian chicken production will be destined for domestic consumption in 2023, in line with previous yearly averages.

Chicken is the most popularly consumed animal protein in Brazil as it is often used as a substitute for the preferred but more expensive option, beef.

Consumption rates will also be propelled by the resumption of work, school and other social activities with the food service industry resuming operations after the effects of the pandemic have started to wane off.

Expected 3% increase in poultry exports

According to the report, the amount of exported chicken will represent almost 31% of total production in 2023.

According to the ministry of economy, Brazil exported a total of 4.48 million tonnes in 2022 worth US$ 9.06 billion. This was a 27% increase compared to 2021 and a 4% increase in volume.

The report projects a 3% increase in exported poultry in 2023, compared to 2022.

In 2022, the top markets for Brazil’s chicken exports were China, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. In January 2023 the top five markets have remained the same, with 392.3 million tonnes exported at US$792.9 million.

Despite being a leader in poultry production and exportation, the report predicts that Brazil will import 5000 tonnes of chicken meat against the 4.8 thousand imported in 2022.

Avian Influenza

Brazil currently holds a little over a third of the world’s poultry exports. The possible onset of Avian Influenza would jeopardize Brazil’s position which is why the country is constantly on its toes trying to prevent it.

Cases of the disease were detected around Brazil’s bordering countries like Colombia and Peru which prompted the government to initiate a “war operation” and start a prevention cabinet.

The president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) said, “We are preparing for the worst but hope it does not take place”

The public and private sectors alike have come together to be involved in the prevention operations such as mapping the areas, training sector professionals, and even prohibiting visits to poultry production sites.

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