Russia wheat production forecast higher on improved spring wheat harvest outlook

RUSSIA — Russia’s 2022 wheat production forecast has been raised to 90 million tons of wheat, on an improved outlook for the spring wheat harvest, according to the materials of the Rusagrotrans analytical center.

In June Sovecon raised its estimate of Russia’s spring wheat sowing area to 12.65 million hectares from 12.10 million and raised its forecast for the crop’s yields to 1.82 tonnes per hectare from 1.70 as the weather improved in the Volga region and the Urals.

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The improved outlook for spring wheat will offset growing problems for winter wheat. Sovecon cut its estimate for the winter wheat yield to 3.89 tonnes per hectare from 4 tonnes due to dry and hot weather in Russia’s south.

“The analytical center of Rusagrotrans again raised the forecast for wheat production in Russia for 2022 – this time by 0.7 million tons – to a record 90 million tons. The estimate has been adjusted based on harvesting data and the condition of crops in the southern regions,” the report says.

Currently, this is the highest estimate of the harvest, declared by industry experts: for example, the Sovecon analytical center predicts a wheat harvest at 89.2 million tons, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) at the level of 88.7 million tons, the Russian Grain Union (RGU) estimates the collection at 83-84 million tons.

According to official forecasts, the grain harvest in Russia in 2022 may reach 130 million tons, including a record 87 million tons of wheat in the history of the Russian Federation.

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Rusagrotrans experts have increased estimates of winter wheat yields for the Krasnodar, Stavropol and Rostov regions, as a result of which the total yield estimate for the Southern and North Caucasian federal districts has been increased by 0.7 million tons, to a record level of 38.5 million tons.

The overall grain harvest forecast was raised to 138.6 million tons from 138 million, while estimates for other crops remained unchanged – in particular, these are 20.3 million tons of barley and 15 million tons of corn.

According to forecasts of meteorologists, the weather will remain favorable for crops in most of the grain-producing regions, and the only concern is the lack of rainfall in the South: according to experts, this may negatively affect late spring crops, mainly corn and sunflower.

Rusagrotrans is a railway infrastructure operator for transportation of agricultural and mineral raw material bulk cargoes by special-purpose hopper cars. Since 2021, it has been part of Demetra-Holding, Russia’s largest vertically integrated grain holding company, combining export logistics and trading assets.

Sovecon is an agricultural market research and analysis firm and Rusagrotrans is a railway infrastructure operator for transportation of agricultural and mineral raw material bulk cargoes by special-purpose hopper cars.

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