Seafood to surpass poultry in protein supply growth in 2025 – Rabobank
Seafood is taking over as the leading protein growth driver, according to Rabobank, especially due to economic factors, biological challenges, and political policies.
WORLD – Seafood is expected to overtake poultry as the fastest-growing protein source this year, according to Rabobank’s latest global protein outlook.
The Dutch financial services firm describes 2025 as a critical year for protein production, with growth expected in aquaculture, wild-caught seafood, and poultry.
Seafood and pork are forecast to return to positive growth, while beef production is set to decline, impacting market structures and supply chains.
Rabobank analysts warn that economic policies and broader financial conditions could influence both demand and access to protein supplies worldwide.
They note that a more balanced production outlook might help stabilize the market, given ongoing uncertainty in consumer demand.
The report highlights that rising costs are inevitable due to geopolitical conflicts and protectionist policies, making sustainability efforts more complex.
Alternative Protein Industry Faces Challenges
Producers of alternative meat products are likely to face another difficult year, with the focus shifting toward premium options that appeal to health-conscious consumers.
Rabobank expects the alternative protein sector to prioritize carving out a niche in the market rather than attempting to gain a major share of the global protein industry.
The report also indicates that demand for new protein sources, such as those derived from mushroom roots, will continue to grow.
Meanwhile, traditional protein production will see mixed trends across different regions, with Brazil’s overall protein output projected to fall by 1%, primarily due to a 5% decline in beef.
China’s production is expected to recover slightly after last year’s downturn, with a modest 0.4% increase.
In contrast, output in Oceania is predicted to remain largely unchanged, while a slowdown is anticipated in North America, the European Union, and Southeast Asia.
Rabobank estimates that global protein production will increase by nearly 6 million metric tonnes in 2025 compared to the previous year.
Seafood Growth Led by Aquaculture and Salmon Demand
The shift in protein sources is being driven by growth in both farmed and wild-caught seafood, with aquaculture and wild fishing expected to outpace poultry this year.
Although poultry production has seen steady growth over the past decade, seafood output is forecast to expand by 2.3% in 2025 after experiencing a 0.3% decline in 2024.
Salmon prices, which were high last year, are expected to decline slightly, making the fish a more attractive option for cost-conscious consumers.
However, the report warns that challenges such as sea lice and fluctuating ocean temperatures, particularly in Norway, could impact salmon production despite an estimated 3% to 4% growth forecast.
Disease and Political Factors Impacting the Industry
Other protein sources face biological challenges as well, with avian influenza continuing to pose a major risk to poultry due to its unpredictable nature.
Hungary’s outbreak of foot and mouth disease has also raised concerns, with the industry increasingly turning to vaccines, genetic research, and artificial intelligence to manage disease outbreaks.
In addition to health risks, political decisions could further complicate market conditions, with protectionist trade policies and tariffs potentially reversing recent inflationary trends.
Rabobank’s analysts also emphasize that sustainability policies will be influenced by political agendas, as the environmental impact of livestock production remains a major concern.
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