TURKEY— The total wheat production forecast is increased slightly to 17.25 million metric tons (MMT) for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 from an original forecast of 17 MMT in April because of better weather conditions between April and June in almost all growing regions.
This is against a projected reduction in planting area this year as farmers switch to alternative crops mainly due to competition with barley and sunflowers in unirrigated areas, as well as other higher value regional products with better financial returns.
Despite this, Turkish domestic wheat consumption is forecast at 20.3 MMT in MY 2022/23, up 100,000 MT from the previous year with a slight increase in feed usage of wheat. Turkey’s wheat import for MY 2022/23 forecast is 10.25 MMT to meet domestic food and feed demand, strengthen country stocks, and meet stable demand from wheat product producers and exporters.
Total wheat exports from Turkey for MY 2022/23, including wheat products, are forecast at 6.75 MMT, similar to MY 2021/22, assuming the government does not implement any export limitations on wheat products.
The barley production forecast for MY 2022/23 is 7.4 MMT, due to favorable weather condition in May and June and an increased planting area after a bad harvest in MY 2021/22, on which Turkey’s barley import is forecast to increase to 2.87 MMT to meet normal demand from the feed sector.
Paralleling the increase in production over last year, the barley consumption forecast for Turkey in MY 2022/23 is projected at 7.5 MMT. In MY 2022/23, Turkish domestic corn consumption is projected at 9.1 MMT, slightly lower than last year, assuming similar demand from the feed sector and starch industry. To also meet this demand, Turkey’s corn import forecast in MY 2022/23 is also forecast to increase to 3 MMT.
Corn MY 2022/23 corn planting in Turkey is completed with harvest set to begin at the end of August. The corn production forecast for MY 2022/23 is 6.2 MMT, due to favorable weather conditions in May and June after planting which caused increased yield expectations.
Rice production in the MY 2022/23 is forecast higher than last year at 896,000 MT, assuming improved yields resulting from favorable weather expectations. Consumption however, is projected to decrease marginally to 800,000 tons as domestic household use will slightly decline due to high rice prices compared to less expensive grain alternatives such as pasta, bulgur, and bread.
On this kind of production and consumption outlook, rice imports and exports are not expected to change from the previous year, forecast at 430,000 MT and 230,000 MT respectively.
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