Ethiopia wheat production forecast is up 3.26 percent over last period production estimate 

ETHIOPIA— A report by United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service Post in Addis Ababa projects Ethiopia’s MY2022/23 wheat production at 5.7 million tons, up by 3.26 percent over the 2021/22 production estimate since the government dedicated more resources to the production of wheat.

Post forecasts wheat consumption in MY 2022/23 to reach to 7.38 million MT, a near 2.9 percent increase over 2021/22. Contributing to wheat consumption growth in the country is population growth, food aid requirements, expansion of agro-processors, urbanization, the increase of the internal displaced population, and increasing household income.

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The demand for wheat has surpassed its production, and the country must import a projected amount of 1.4 million tons of wheat to meet its domestic consumption needs in the 2022/23 marketing year.

Corn is the largest cereal commodity in terms of total production and yield and second in terms of area coverage. FAS- Addis Ababa projected production for MY 2022/23 to be 10.2 million metric tons harvested from 2.55 million hectares.

MY 2021/22 corn consumption is estimated at 9.5 million metric tons. The growing demand for human food and animal feed has pushed consumption up to 9.9 million metric tons in MY 2022/23.

Sorghum consumption is estimated at 4.55 million metric tons in MY 2021/22, down by 14 percent from the USDA official estimate. The lower consumption is due to higher prices, less supply of sorghum and reduced market access in the conflict and war affected area.

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Barley is the fifth most important crop in terms of area coverage after teff, corn, wheat, and sorghum. FAS/Addis Ababa projected barley production in 2022/23 to be 2.4 million MT based on the barley requirement for brewing industries in Ethiopia.

Barley consumption in MY 2022/23 is forecast to reach to 2.4 million MT, a 3.5 percent increase over 2021/22 MY, owing to the growing demand for malting barley due to increasing beer consumption.

The local production fails to supply the increasing demand of malt barley for the industries, the MY 2021/22 barley import number is increased to 35,000 MT mainly from France and Belgium. MY 2022/23 barley imports are forecast at 40,000 MT.

Barley stocks in MY 2021/22 are estimated at 81,000 MT out of which 65 percent is for malt barley and the remaining 35 percent for food and seed.

FAS/Addis Ababa forecast millet production to be 1.18 million metric tons in 2022/23. This is only 0 .06 percent increase from the revised estimate of 2021/22 (1.17 million MT). The low price for millet compared to other cereals disincentivizes farmers from expanding millet farms.

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Poor families in the rural area prefer millet over teff to make injera due to its lower price. Millet consumption for MY 2022/23 is projected at 1.2 million MT and 2021/22 ending stocks at 33,000 MT.

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