US broiler market faces declining exports alongside surge in imports

USA – Broiler exports are witnessing a decline, totaling 608.7 million pounds in January, marking a 3.4% decrease from January 2023, according to the latest USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.

Exports to Mexico, which represent 22.8% of total shipments, remain stable at 138.9 million pounds compared to the previous January.

However, increased shipments to markets like Taiwan (+22.7 million pounds), the United Arab Emirates (+12.6 million pounds), the Philippines (+10.1 million pounds), and Georgia (+4.0 million pounds) are not enough to counterbalance the declines in exports to China (-23.4 million pounds), Angola (-14.6 million pounds), Turkey (-8.5 million pounds), Colombia (-7.8 million pounds), Haiti (-6.5 million pounds), and South Africa (-6.5 million pounds).

The USDA is adjusting its projected exports for 2024 down by 50 million pounds, bringing the total to 7,165 million pounds.

This adjustment reflects the reduced competitiveness of US prices in the global market alongside increasing output from Brazil.

Concurrently, China’s demand for US chicken continues to wane, with China accounting for only 1.4% of US broiler exports in January.

Given expectations of lower sales to several key markets, the forecast for 2024 exports is being reduced, with projected broiler exports making up 15.3% of the anticipated 2024 production.

On the import side, January sees broiler imports totaling 15.2 million pounds, which is 3.6 million pounds more than the same month last year.

Imports from Chile are particularly strong, totaling 11.2 million pounds and making up 73.8% of total broiler imports.

This trend supports the 2024 broiler import projection of 215 million pounds, which represents an increase of 84 million pounds over the 2023 total.

A few months ago, reports indicated that  the USA and China continue to be the leading poultry producers globally, collectively accounting for a third of global poultry production. 

US producers benefit from competitive production structures, abundant domestic feed resources, and advancements in poultry genetics, enhancing their price competitiveness. 

Meanwhile, China’s steady growth in chicken output is driven by significant investments in production capacities, process optimization, and diversification, aligning with the country’s goals for integrated food production and improved food security.

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