USA – The U.S. poultry industry is expected to see stable prices over the next decade as it recovers from the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in 2022-23.
This is according to a recent report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS).
The report, titled “Long-Term Growth Projected as US Poultry and Egg Sector Recovers,” provides insights into the market outlook for major poultry products.
In 2022, prices received by poultry producers, commonly lower than retail prices, surged due to production challenges.
However, these prices are anticipated to remain steady throughout the ten-year forecast period, with measures being implemented to prevent future outbreaks.
For eggs, the report highlighted that farm prices, which peaked at US$2.39 per dozen in 2022, are projected to stay significantly below this level.
By 2033, egg prices are forecasted to reach US$1.49 per dozen, marking a period of relative stability.
Similarly, the broiler sector, which experienced a peak farm price of US$0.85 per pound in 2022, is expected to see a decline in prices until 2028, with the lowest point at US$0.71 per pound.
A gradual increase is projected thereafter, with prices anticipated to reach $0.75 per pound by 2033.
Meanwhile, the turkey sector faces a slow but steady decline in prices due to decreasing domestic consumption despite rising production.
After hitting a high of US$1.07 per pound in 2022, turkey prices are expected to drop to US$0.91 per pound by 2033, although they will remain higher than pre-2022 levels.
On a global scale, broiler meat production in 2023 was approximately 103.5 million metric tons, with a slight increase projected for 2024, reaching 104.2 million metric tons.
The U.S. continues to lead in broiler meat production, contributing an estimated 21 million metric tons in 2023.
Brazil follows as the second-largest producer with 14.9 million metric tons.
In terms of international trade, Japan emerged as the largest importer of broiler meat in 2022, while Brazil and the United States dominated the export market, shipping 4.6 million metric tons and 3.36 million metric tons, respectively.
The global chicken meat industry, encompassing various production stages from feed mills to processing plants, has seen significant growth, with the worldwide chicken population reaching US$25.8 billion in 2021, up from US$14.38 billion in 2000.
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