US sugar supply to tighten in 2022 as wheat carryover falls to the lowest level since 2008

USA – The US Department of Agriculture has lowered its for 2021-22 sugar ending stocks as lower imports and lower cane sugar production more than offset higher beginning stocks and higher beet sugar production.   

In its recently released World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA forecast ending stocks for 2021-22 at 1,627,000 tons, down 38,361 tons from September. 

For 2020-21, which ended Sept. 30, the USDA lowered domestic cane sugar production by about 20,000 tons, raw value, as a late start to the sugar cane harvest in Louisiana pushed more sugar into the new marketing year.  

Imports for 2020-21 were also raised from September by about 83,000 tons due to a 25,000-ton increase in high-tier imports, forecast at 205,000 tons, and more sugar than expected entering the United States before Sept. 30 after the USDA increased the 2020-21 raw sugar tariff rate quota by 99,318 tons on Aug. 24.  

As a result, total sugar supply for 2020-21 was estimated at 14,052,000 tons, down 63,000 tons from the September estimate.  

Moving into 2021-22, which began Oct. 1, USDA has raised beginning stocks from September by 49,000 tons to 1,681,000 tons.  

Beet sugar product was forecast at a record 5,348,000 tons, up 145,945 tons from September due to a forecast increase in sugar beet production, mainly in the Upper Midwest and the Great Plains.  

Cane sugar production in 2021-22 is now forecast at 3,939,000 tons, down 20,623 tons from September due to a like reduction in Louisiana as lower yields were only partially offset by higher harvested area. 

Imports in 2021-22 are projected at 3,000,000 tons, down 212,000 tons from September as more sugar entered the United States than expected before Oct. 1 after the USDA increased the TRQ in August. 

High-tier imports were unchanged at 75,000 tons, and forecast imports from Mexico were unchanged at 1,084,000 tons. The raw sugar TRQ shortfall for 2021-22 was raised to 250,764 tons, the USDA said. 

Wheat sees smallest carryover since 2008 

Meanwhile, the USDA has lowered its forecast for the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2022, to 580 million bushels (bus), down 35 million bus from the September projection. 

According to the USDA, this carryover will be a 31% decline from the 845 million bus forecast in 2021, making it the smallest wheat carryover since 2008.  

Wheat supply for the 2021-22 market year was forecast at 2,616 million bus, down 60 million bus from the September outlook and down 341 million bus, or 12%, from 2,957 million bus in 2020-21.  

The lower supply forecast was tied to a 51-million-bu reduction in the 2021 all-wheat crop estimate to 1,646 million bus as reported in the Small Grains 2021 Summary. 

Us wheat exports in 2021-22 were, on the other hand, forecast at 875 million bus, unchanged from September but down 117 million bus, or 12%, from 992 million bus in 2020-21. 

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