US tariffs on Mexican imports spark concerns in Kenya’s avocado industry
KENYA – Kenya’s avocado industry is facing uncertainty following the United States’ decision to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico.
Since Mexico dominates the global avocado market, Kenyan exporters fear that the new policy will disrupt trade flows and put financial pressure on local producers.
Mexico currently exports around 80% of its avocado shipments to the United States. With the additional tax, experts believe that Mexican suppliers may redirect up to 50% of their exports to Europe—Kenya’s primary avocado market.
“The consequences are clear: Kenyan producers could be forced to sell at a loss, turn to less lucrative markets with greater logistical challenges, or face the risk of unsold and perishable stocks. In addition, unlike Peruvian exports that usually leave the European market in October, Mexico’s continued supply means that there will be no respite during the peak shopping season in Europe,” the Kenya Avocado Exporters Association stated in an analysis published on March 5.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Mexico shipped an average of 1.27 million tons of avocados between 2019 and 2022.
The anticipated influx of additional Mexican supply into Europe could result in an oversupply, driving prices down.
The shift could impact Kenya’s projected growth in avocado export revenues for 2025. A February 13 report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicated that Kenya was expecting an 11% increase in avocado export revenue, reaching US$175 million this year. However, the current situation has put these expectations into question.
The introduction of the tariffs has caused widespread uncertainty in the industry. Rob Cullum from Pacific Produce, the marketing arm of Peruvian producer La Calera, commented on the uncertainty surrounding global fruit trade.
“Basically, nobody knows what will happen,” said Cullum. “The first effect has been on currency. The U.S. dollar has dropped 2% against the GBP already this week. This may not seem like a lot, but in an industry where margins are small, it has a big effect. Our sector has difficulties in dealing with the volatility of currency.”
He added that the overall supply chain—from farm operations to energy and shipping—could face disruptions, making price stability difficult.
Avocado market faces potential shift
Mirko Infantes, Product Manager for Avocado at Pacific Produce, highlighted the potential shift in supply and demand due to the new tariffs.
He stated that Mexico is the dominant supplier of avocados to the U.S.; the country supplies around 85%+ of the U.S. market. Meanwhile, Peru is dominant in the European market, sending around 600 containers each week to Europe.
“If the U.S. importers want to import Peruvian avocados, say a couple of hundred containers extra, it won’t make much difference to the U.S. market. But if you take 200 containers away from the European market, there will be shortages in the summer.”
Infantes added that if Mexico redirects its supply to the EU, the entire trade dynamic could change. “The problem with Mexico shipping to Northern Europe is with certification. Retailers must have certification on the avocados, and Mexico has a lot of uncertified fruit. This may result in a two-tier market in Europe.”
Cullum advised industry players to remain informed but avoid reacting too quickly. “If you work in a market price destination, then supply and demand will dictate what happens,” he said. “But if you are trying to make fixed programs, that is more difficult. We will try to meet our programs and ignore the noise!”
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