EGYPT – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has predicted a drop in global orange trade in 2024/2025 due to lower production in Egypt, a key exporter of the fruit.
The department has forecasted a decline further estimating that shipments will reach 4.7 million tons in 2024/2025.
This marks a 6% decrease, equivalent to 300,000 tons, compared to the previous marketing year. The decline is primarily due to Egypt’s reduced exports, which are projected to fall by 15.2% to 1.95 million tons.
Egypt, the world’s largest exporter of fresh oranges, accounts for approximately 45% of international shipments.
According to the USDA, this decline is mainly caused by lower production, which is expected to drop by 12% to 3.7 million tons.
“The situation in Egypt is mainly due to the reduction in the volume available for export amid a decline in local production,” the USDA stated. Adverse weather conditions during flowering and fruit set have contributed to the lower yields.
Another factor affecting fresh orange exports is the increasing focus on orange juice production in Egypt. The USDA reports that orange juice prices have surged on the international market due to a supply shortage from Brazil, the leading global producer.
“While forecasts point to a global shortage of oranges for juice production [due to climatic issues and agricultural diseases], Egyptian agribusinesses are adding value to their fresh produce, given the high prices of processed oranges on the global market,” the USDA noted.
In response to these trends, Egypt is expected to increase the volume of oranges processed into juice by 50% in 2024/2025, reaching 450,000 tons.
This represents about 12% of the country’s total expected production. The growing appeal of processed oranges aligns with rising international demand and efforts to maximize export revenues.
Orange juice prices have remained high in 2024 due to global supply constraints. Data from the New York Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the leading trading platform for frozen concentrated orange juice, shows that the commodity’s benchmark price has risen 56.2% since January 2, closing at USD 479.6 per pound on January 30. This translates to approximately USD 1,057.34 per kilogram.
The Egyptian government has also taken steps to support the citrus processing industry. In October 2024, authorities approved the establishment of a special economic zone dedicated to citrus processing in the Port Said industrial area.
With an investment of USD 10 million, the project aims to produce 2,500 tons of concentrate per season in its initial phase. This initiative is expected to enhance Egypt’s ability to compete in the processed orange market.
Egypt’s orange juice exports generated over USD 41.5 million in 2023, according to Trade Map data. The sector’s expansion into processing offers opportunities to increase earnings and reduce dependence on fresh fruit exports.
However, the shift comes at a time when fresh orange availability is tightening, potentially impacting global citrus supply chains in the coming year.
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