UK—With spring planting under way and in good conditions, and the winter crops being reported to have developed well and in good to excellent condition, the outlook for the UK grains crop currently remains positive.
In total, UK grain production, that is, wheat, barley, oats, and mixed grains in MY 2022/23 is forecast at 22.85 million metric tons (MMT), nearly 450,000 MT up from MY 2021/22, and over 3.8 MMT above MY 2020/21.
The current crop outlook for MY 2022/23 suggests wheat will once again account for over half of UK feed usage, followed by barley, and the UK will remain an importer of corn, albeit below the already reduced level of MY 2021/22.
While wheat production in MY 2021/22 was very much improved year-on-year, at 14 MMT it was below expectations following mixed growing conditions and a rain-disrupted harvest.
The total wheat area is forecast to increase marginally in MY 2022/23, by just 15,000 hectares. A mild, dry, and settled fall was good for crop establishment.
Production is currently forecast to rise to 14.7 MMT but the questions over input costs, especially fertilizer and fuel, mean crop treatment may be reduced, with potential yield and quality reductions.
Total FSI use of wheat is forecast to rise by over 600,000 MT in MY 2022/23, driven by an increase in the bioethanol sector. This follows a 450,000 MT rise in MY 2021/22.
Stock levels are expected to rise nearly 250,000 MT in MY 2021/22 following their low opening. The expectations of a further increase in the size of the wheat harvest in 2022 means MY 2022/23 ending stocks are currently forecast to recover to around 1.9 MMT.
Total barley area in MY 2022/23 is forecast at 1.1 Million hectares, and total production is currently forecast to reach 6.85 MMT, just 100,000 MT down year-on-year, with FSI usage forecast to remain at around 1.9 MMT.
MY 2022/23 opening stocks are expected to be just 1.1 MMT and the continued strong forecast demand for barley, both for animal feed and by the FSI sector, means closing stocks are forecast to remain low.
The UK area planted to oats in MY 2022/23 is forecast to fall back to near the level of MY 2019/20 following two successive years of increased plantings as production is currently forecast to reach 1 MMT.
The tightening of the UK feed grain market in the latter half of MY 2021/22 means feed use of oats is now expected to rise to over 500,000 MT.
Total MY 2021/22 corn imports are expected to rise to an estimated 2 MMT, after the imposed tariff on us corn is set to be lifted at the beginning of June.
UK rice consumption continues to trend upwards year-on-year. MY 2021/22 rice imports are estimated at 640,000 MT. A further slight rise in imports is forecast for MY 2022/23, as consumption demand continues to increase.
With forecast demand for feed grains only marginally down year-on-year and demand from the biofuels sector rising once more, low opening stocks means the overall UK grain balance is expected to remain tight.
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